2 Mar 2026

It Was Never About Iran or Venezuela. It’s About China.

+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is usedChina’s rise has a quiet weakness: energy dependence. 🇨🇳 China imports 70%+ of its oil 🛢️ And that oil comes from a very small club of countries Here’s the part most people miss: Venezuela (#1), Saudi Arabia (#2), and Iran (#3) Together control ~45% of the world’s proven oil reserves Now connect the dots. The public narratives are familiar: • Remove dictators • Stop drug trafficking • Prevent nuclear weapons All valid concerns. But they don’t explain the pattern. 🔹 If drugs were the real reason, Mexico would be the main target 🔹 If nukes were the red line, North Korea would be regime-changed 🔹 If authoritarianism was intolerable, the list would be much longer So why Iran and Venezuela? Because both sit on massive oil reserves And both have been energy lifelines for China This isn’t about invasion or ownership. It’s about influence: • Who they trade with • Who they align with • Who gets access when supply tightens You don’t need to control oil. You just need to shape who can’t access it. Seen through that lens, the strategy becomes clear: 🧠 Pressure China without firing at China 🌍 Reshape global energy leverage ♟️ Play the long game, quietly Source: SoveyX Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge

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