4 Oct 2023

US job openings top all forecasts as white-collar positions jumped: equity markets tanking as US 10 year yields hit fresh 16y high with all of the increase is due to a rise in real yields

US 10y nominal yields is now at 4.73%, 10y real yields (nominal yields-10y inflation expectations) at 2.37%. THE FACTS - US job openings unexpectedly increased in August, fueled by a surge in white-collar postings, highlighting the durability of labor demand. - The number of available positions increased to 9.61 million from a revised 8.92 million in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Tuesday. Hiring edged up, while layoffs remained low. - The level of openings topped all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. - The so-called quits rate, which measures voluntary job leavers as a share of total employment, held at 2.3%, matching the lowest since 2020. Fewer quits implies Americans are less confident in their ability to find another job in the current market. OUR TAKE In the current context of "higher rates for longer" fears, investors are probably over-reacting to this report which is adding some confusion to the current trend (which has been a progressive cooling down of the job market). Source chart: Bloomberg


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