Oman Crude pushes further above $150!
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Shanghai crude futures surged to a record 929.4 yuan per barrel, their highest level since the contract launched in 2018. The catalyst? A major Middle East pipeline shutdown has tightened supplies, forcing Chinese refiners to compete aggressively for replacement cargoes. Oman and Murban crude are now both trading above $126 per barrel. But the most important signal is not simply the price surge. It is where the move started. Shanghai is leading, not following, Brent and WTI. When China’s domestic benchmark moves first, its refiners become the marginal buyers setting the price for the next available barrel. The message is clear: global oil-price discovery may be shifting east. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
Brent is closing in on $110 after Houthi strikes shut the Saudi East-West pipeline, with Riyadh’s output at a 30-year low of roughly 6m b/d and Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb presenting a two-front chokepoint risk. This is a supply shock, which means it doesn't fade on its own, and the WTI/10Y correlation has hit 0.96. Every barrel higher is a basis point in the long end. Then there's the quiet second claim on the same buyer pool: the AI build out. Hyperscaler capex now runs >100% of operating cash flow, implying ~$1.3tn of debt by 2028, with tech leading the $380bn 2026 bond supply, competing directly with Treasuries while bidding up chips, power and labor. The trade funding the equity bull is now financing the tightening cycle. Source: TME