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This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.
The Ifo Business Index fell to 84.7 in December, down from 85.6 in November –its lowest level since May 2020. This is far below the long-term average of 96.6 and looks weak even compared to recent years. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the index has averaged just 88.2. The latest drop was driven by a sharp decline in the expectations component, which fell from 87 in November to 84.4 in Dec. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had predicted a slight uptick and none saw a retreat of that scale. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Yes, the Fed has already cut near all-time-highs and you know what ❓ The Bulls 🐮 Liked it 👍 The S&P 500 is less than 2% away from all-time highs the day before a Fed decision. Since 1980, there were 20 other times they cut rates within 2% of ATHs. The S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 times 🚀 Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick
For the first time since the "Fed pivot" began, Apollo has officially declared inflation back on the rise. They warn of a potential repeat the 1970s as the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation. Apollo says the probability of the Fed RAISING interest rates in 2025 is now rising. Here's why: 👉 First, measures of inflation stickiness are all now well above the Fed's 2% target. In fact, the Atlanta Fed Core Sticky CPI index has leveled off near 4%. ALL major measures of CPI stickiness are now above 3%. 👉 Meanwhile, core CPI has levelled off at 3.3% fore multiple months in a row. This was "fine" because headline CPI was moving in a straight-line to 2% all year. However, as of the latest CPI inflation data, it's now RISING and back to 2.7%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Apollo
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