Slow food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

Key takeaways • There has been a change of tone in the markets with equities pulling back in April and US 10-year yield moving up 45 basis points over the month, while gold and the dollar soared. • The weight of evidence of our fundamental and market dynamics indicators leads us to remain neutral to positive on equities. While markets could stay choppy for a little while, we believe that the pullback could be contained, and that further equity market weakness is buyable. • Going forward, we want to keep our allocation to Equities close to our strategic asset allocation (SAA) neutral weights. We upgraded our stance on European stocks (from neutral to positive) and downgraded our view on Japanese stocks from positive to neutral. We remain negative in fixed income and downgraded our view on Emerging markets bonds. We have also upgraded our stance on Commodities to positive from neutral. Last but not least, we reduced all currencies by one “notch” vs. USD: EUR, CHF, GBP & EM are reduced down to negative (from neutral) while JPY is down to neutral (from positive).

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Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

A week of sharp movements in U.S. Treasury yields reflects a broader market recalibration, as fresh economic data and Fed rhetoric temper expectations for rate cuts, casting new shadows on fixed income outlooks.

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12/05/2024

The S&P 500 Index is moving back towards its all-time high and recorded its third consecutive week of gains. The other major indexes also advanced, with value stocks generally outperforming growth shares. Market volumes were especially low over much of the week. A surprise rise in weekly jobless claims seemed to dominate the week’s economic calendar: unemployment benefits rose to 231,000 in the week ended the previous Wednesday, its highest since last August. Likewise, continuing claims broke a four-week downward streak and rose to 1.79 million.

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