WEEKLY SUMMARY: Stocks mixed, cryptos soared in ‘Goldilocks’ week
A late rally helped the major US equity indexes end flat to modestly higher for the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index outperformed the S&P 500 Index for the third time in the past four weeks, helping narrow its significant underperformance. Within the S&P 500, energy stocks lagged as domestic oil prices fell below USD 70 per barrel for the first time since June. On the Macro side, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report surprised modestly on the upside, with employers adding 199k jobs in November versus consensus expectations of around 180k. The unemployment rate fell back to 3.7%. The bigger surprise was the University of Michigan’s preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment in December, which jumped to its highest level since August on calming inflation fears. Survey respondents expect prices to increase by 3.1% in the coming year, down from 4.5% in November and the lowest rate since March 2021. The US 10-year yield hit an intraday low of 4.10% on Thursday but yields rebounded in the wake of the payrolls report. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index advanced for a fourth consecutive week, ending 1.30% higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 3.4% over the week as comments by BoJ officials stoked speculation that the central bank may abandon its policy of negative interest rates earlier than anticipated, weighing on riskier assets. The dollar jumped while cryptos were all higher this week with BTC and ETH each up around 13%. Spot Gold fell back to $2000 on Friday.
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U.S. stocks finished the week higher, with the S&P 500 Index logging its 2nd consecutive week of gains for the 1st time since January and closing Friday with its 9th straight session in positive territory - its longest win streak since Nov 2004. It has erased all of the post-Liberation-Day losses. The string of news coming out this week was unequivocally positive, supporting the market recovery that we have seen since the bottom on Apr-9. The White House continued to unilaterally pull back on its tariff policies, introducing a partial exemption for US Auto makers that use imported auto parts. On the macro side, April Payrolls report (published on Friday) revealed a resilient labor market with non-farm payrolls rising 177k alongside an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%.