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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Stocks mixed, cryptos soared in ‘Goldilocks’ week
A late rally helped the major US equity indexes end flat to modestly higher for the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index outperformed the S&P 500 Index for the third time in the past four weeks, helping narrow its significant underperformance. Within the S&P 500, energy stocks lagged as domestic oil prices fell below USD 70 per barrel for the first time since June. On the Macro side, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report surprised modestly on the upside, with employers adding 199k jobs in November versus consensus expectations of around 180k. The unemployment rate fell back to 3.7%. The bigger surprise was the University of Michigan’s preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment in December, which jumped to its highest level since August on calming inflation fears. Survey respondents expect prices to increase by 3.1% in the coming year, down from 4.5% in November and the lowest rate since March 2021. The US 10-year yield hit an intraday low of 4.10% on Thursday but yields rebounded in the wake of the payrolls report. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index advanced for a fourth consecutive week, ending 1.30% higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 3.4% over the week as comments by BoJ officials stoked speculation that the central bank may abandon its policy of negative interest rates earlier than anticipated, weighing on riskier assets. The dollar jumped while cryptos were all higher this week with BTC and ETH each up around 13%. Spot Gold fell back to $2000 on Friday.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.