Market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 have been adjusting over recent weeks, a trend solidified by the latest job report, which has now pushed the anticipated timing of the first rate cut to July from June, with fewer than three cuts expected for the year. Adding a layer of caution, Federal Reserve member Kashkari has suggested that rate cuts may not be necessary if inflation doesn't continue to decrease…

The U.S. stock market had a strong start to 2024, with the S&P 500 experiencing its best beginning since 2019, rising by 10.2%. This bullish momentum, underscored by record lows in volatility, reflects a surge in investor optimism. The tech and healthcare sectors continued to perform, while adjustments in Fed rate cut expectations and a strong dollar added to the market's complexity. Each quarter, the Syz investment team takes you through the last 3 months in 10 charts.

As we wrap up Q1 2024, the fixed income landscape presents a study in contrasts. While government and investment-grade corporate bonds experienced some setbacks, high-yield and emerging market segments emerged with commendable gains. This period was notably influenced by persistent inflation concerns, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and an uptick in US Treasury offerings.

The major equity indexes advanced over the shortened trading week to end a quarter of strong gains. The S&P 500 Index recorded new closing and intraday highs to end the week. The market’s advance was notably broad, with an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index gaining 1.64%, well ahead of the 0.39% increase in the S&P 500. Small-caps also easily outperformed large-caps. market activity was generally subdued ahead of the holiday weekend. US economic data were mixed. Durable goods orders ex- defense & aircraft rose a solid 0.7%, much more than anticipated. New home sales fell unexpectedly in February. Consumer confidence declined slightly in March, defying consensus expectations for an increase.

The SNB unexpectedly cut rates, resulting in a drop for the Swiss franc versus the Euro and Dollar and the S&P 500 hits record high as FED signals future cuts in 2024. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

At its recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its stance, signaling three rate cuts in 2024, aligning with its December 2023 projections. The Fed also adjusted its longer-term outlook, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank made an unexpected move by cutting rates, and the Bank of England conveyed a dovish stance while holding rates steady.

Stocks moved higher for the week, pushing the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite to new records, as investors welcomed news that the Fed is still anticipating three interest rate cuts later in the year. A late rise helped NVIDIA reach a record high on Friday and lift the company’s market cap near USD 2.4 trillion. The week’s macro data arguably supported hopes that the economy was continuing to expand without reigniting inflation pressures. February existing home sales surprised most observers by jumping 9.5%. The news from the Fed helped drive a decline in longer-term Treasury yields over the week.

The Swiss National Bank cut its key rate to 1.50%, surprising markets as the first major central bank to lower rates post the 2022/23 hike cycle, citing effective inflation control and improved economic growth forecasts, aiming to support economic activity without undue pressure.

Bitcoin spot ETFs enjoy record month in inflows, 1.38 million bitcoin still need to be mined in order to reach the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoin, but will we hit a bitcoin liquidity crisis? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Recent U.S. inflation figures, embodying both the CPI and PPI, underscore persistent uncertainties, highlighting that the journey to stabilize inflation is far from over. These developments advocate for a prudent stance from the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the necessity of patience before contemplating any policy easing in the face of the "last smile" of disinflation.