The major US equity indexes closed modestly lower for the week after recovering from the biggest sell-off in nearly two years. The S&P 500 Index neared correction territory (down over 10% from its peak) on Monday morning while the Nasdaq was down 15.8% from its peak. Even more pronounced were the swings in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – the fear gauge - which briefly spiked Monday to 65.7, its highest level since late March 2020, before falling back to end the week at 20.6. A recent increase in Japanese short-term interest rates, albeit modest, seemed to result in a partial unwind in the so-called carry trade. A sharp rise in the yen over the preceding few weeks made the trade unprofitable, causing many investors to pull out of their positions. On the macro side, several major companies reported signs of weakening consumer demand during earnings calls.

Softening U.S. labour market signals potential rate cuts Weakening U.S. labour market data hints at potential rate cuts, as inflation moves below the 3-4% range it held for the past year, and volatility resurfaces. Each month, the Syz investment team takes you through the last month in 10 charts.

The Fed hints at a possible rate cut in September, Eurozone inflation ticks up slightly, and only 5% of U.S. companies currently use AI. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

The major US equities benchmarks closed lower, as investors reacted to the busiest week of the quarterly earnings reporting season and disappointing monthly economic data. Furthermore, the BOJ’s decision to hike rates and turn hawkish after nearly 18 years stunned investors and led to a massive short squeeze. The recent rotation toward value stocks and small-caps stalled, at least in part, as the small-cap Russell 2000 Index pulled back sharply at the end of the week, recording its worst week since March 2023. However, an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index held up better than its market-weighted counterpart, suggesting that the market’s performance continued to broaden away from the so-called Magnificent Seven and other Tech mega-caps.

US growth is showing resilience, but markets suffered a strong setback. Meanwhile in Europe, the Euro has lost 40% of it’s purchasing power since inception, however some East European countries are set for strong growth. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

US stocks recorded mixed returns for the 2nd consecutive week, with small-cap and value shares continuing to outperform large-cap growth stocks that have led the market over much of the year. Indeed, at the close of trading on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 Index was lagging the broader S&P 500 and barely outperforming the small-cap Russell 2000 Index for the year to date, before large-cap growth shares rebounded to close the week. The week was also notable for the S&P 500 selling off on Wednesday by more than 2% for the first time since February 2023, while the Nasdaq suffered its worst loss since October 2022. micro seemed to take precedence over the macro for much of the week, as investors absorbed one of the busiest weeks of the earnings reporting season.

Semiconductor stocks have started correcting and the Mag7 are engaging in stock buybacks, while US debt produces less GDP per borrowed dollar than it used to. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Stocks were volatile this week with continued rotation in market leadership to small-cap and value shares. U.S. markets initially rallied to new-highs but faded toward week's end, led by weakness in the tech sector. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower on the week, while the Dow posted a solid gain. Value stocks outpaced growth stocks by 477 basis, as measured by Russell indexes—the largest divergence since March 2023. The week was also notable for a widespread global disruption to computer systems early Friday due to an error in a vendor’s security update to some users of the Microsoft operating system.

Good inflation figures are raising hopes for a new rate cut by the FED as soon as September. Small and mid-caps are reaping the benefits of the shifting tides, while Biden’s odds have taken a turn for the worse. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

The summer seems sweet for bond market which just received a welcome boost from the latest US CPI released below expectations. The market is now priced more than 90% chance to get a rate cut in September.