The Fed's monetary policy is increasingly restrictive. Kamala Harris has a 53% chance of winning the 2024 US election, and US oil production has risen 22% over four years, a 250% increase since 2008. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

After months where inflation dominated market movements, bond markets now seem less reactive to inflation data, turning their attention instead to labor market trends, upcoming elections, and geopolitical uncertainties. This shift could indicate a broader rebalancing of market drivers in the months ahead.

US equities recorded their best week since 2023, led by a 5%-plus surge in the Nasdaq (which is up 12% from last Monday's lows). Investors appeared to celebrate positive news on both the inflation and growth fronts, which are bolstering hopes that the economy might achieve a “soft landing.” AI chip giant NVIDIA was especially strong, gaining 19% over the week. Growth stocks handily outpaced value shares. Small Caps were lifted by an ongoing short-squeeze. Official economic data suggested that the consumer was holding strong in the face of the cooling labor market. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales surged 1.0% in July, their best showing in 18 months. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation, reported Wednesday, was in line with expectations but also seemed to reassure investors, as the yoy increase in CPI fell below 3.0% for the first time in three years. The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased through most of the week on the benign inflation data but jumped on Thursday following the strong retail sales data. Credit markets rallied hard this week, adjusting back from "hard landing" to "soft landing" scenarios.

After a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report earlier this month, Japan's market crisis initially boosted bonds, suggesting a return to safety. However, yields corrected later in the week as reassuring news from Japan and a rebound in equities tempered the bond rally.

The week began in total chaos on Japanese markets as the ‘yen carry trade’ unwound, triggering a sharp rise in US equity volatility. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

The major US equity indexes closed modestly lower for the week after recovering from the biggest sell-off in nearly two years. The S&P 500 Index neared correction territory (down over 10% from its peak) on Monday morning while the Nasdaq was down 15.8% from its peak. Even more pronounced were the swings in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – the fear gauge - which briefly spiked Monday to 65.7, its highest level since late March 2020, before falling back to end the week at 20.6. A recent increase in Japanese short-term interest rates, albeit modest, seemed to result in a partial unwind in the so-called carry trade. A sharp rise in the yen over the preceding few weeks made the trade unprofitable, causing many investors to pull out of their positions. On the macro side, several major companies reported signs of weakening consumer demand during earnings calls.

Softening U.S. labour market signals potential rate cuts Weakening U.S. labour market data hints at potential rate cuts, as inflation moves below the 3-4% range it held for the past year, and volatility resurfaces. Each month, the Syz investment team takes you through the last month in 10 charts.

The Fed hints at a possible rate cut in September, Eurozone inflation ticks up slightly, and only 5% of U.S. companies currently use AI. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

The major US equities benchmarks closed lower, as investors reacted to the busiest week of the quarterly earnings reporting season and disappointing monthly economic data. Furthermore, the BOJ’s decision to hike rates and turn hawkish after nearly 18 years stunned investors and led to a massive short squeeze. The recent rotation toward value stocks and small-caps stalled, at least in part, as the small-cap Russell 2000 Index pulled back sharply at the end of the week, recording its worst week since March 2023. However, an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index held up better than its market-weighted counterpart, suggesting that the market’s performance continued to broaden away from the so-called Magnificent Seven and other Tech mega-caps.

US growth is showing resilience, but markets suffered a strong setback. Meanwhile in Europe, the Euro has lost 40% of it’s purchasing power since inception, however some East European countries are set for strong growth. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.