US stocks gained in the first notably broad advance since mid-April. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite moved to record intraday highs, but the biggest advance was notched by the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which gained 6.00%, marking its best week since early November. Value stocks also handily outperformed growth stocks. Q2 earnings season kicked off Friday with releases from JPM, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. The first 2 missed estimates while the latter cut its outlook. A major factor supporting stocks appeared to be Thursday’s release of the US CPI as headline prices fell 0.1% in June, the first decline in 4 years. In the wake of the report, the Russell 2000 Index outperformed the large-cap S&P 500 and the Nasdaq by 209bps and 581bps respectively.

If history is any indication, volatility is set to soar. Meanwhile, UK voters largely favored the Labor party, and the bets are on for who will replace Joe Biden as democratic nominee. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

With job market challenges potentially hastening Federal Reserve rate cuts before the elections, and looming expansive fiscal promises exerting pressure on long-term yields, the stage is set for significant movements in the US bond landscape.

The S&P 500 is up 16% YTD, with the benchmark recording its 4th positive week in the last five as investors bet that any economic weakness later this year will be met with a Fed rate cut. The Nasdaq’s YTD gain is 22%. As measured by Russell 1000 indexes, growth shares outperformed value stocks by 415 basis points over the week, while small & mid caps recorded losses. Expectations for lower interest rates, fed by signs of weakening growth and easing inflation pressures, seemed to remain a major factor in favouring growth stocks. On Monday, the ISM posted its lowest reading of manufacturing activity (48.5) since February. More surprising may have been a sharp downturn in the ISM’s current services sector activity, which plunged from 53.8 in May to 48.8 in June.

The US labour market is cooling down, and today’s Employment report brought another confirmation of this trend. Job creations in the private sector have settled below 200k per month throughout Q2 and declined to 136k in June. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, its highest level of this expansion cycle. Only government jobs continued a solid upward trend, which may not be surprising in an electoral year. The normalisation of the US labour market is one of the five key trends to watch for the next 6 months (cf. Syz H2 2024 Market Outlook: Normalisation ahead). Today’s US Employment Report fits into this dynamic, which is at the heart of our expectations for economic growth normalisation, softer inflationary pressures and central bank rate cuts.

Populism is on the rise, the first Presidential debate sparked renewed concerns over Biden's mental acuity and both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq100 reach new all-time highs. Each month, the Syz investment team takes you through the last month in ten charts.

Biden stumbles in his first debate, credit card interest rates soar in the US, and Hoka's dream ascent continues. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Amid a mix of cooling economic indicators and heightened electoral drama, the bond markets have entered a summer period marked by cautious optimism and strategic recalibrations, setting the stage for a quarter shaped by both policy expectations and political outcomes.

Most major U.S. stock indexes posted gains in a light news week during what seemed to be a bit of a lull in market activity ahead of Q2 earnings reports. Small-caps and Tech stocks performed best, with growth style outperforming value. The banking sector performed well as media reports said that the Fed is considering significantly lighter additional capital requirements for banks than regulators originally proposed in the wake of the regional banking crisis in March 2023. This good news was followed by the Fed’s announcement that all 31 of the large U.S. banks they stress tested remained above their minimum capital levels. The main macro number of the week was Core PCE inflation which showed that prices excluding food and energy rose 0.1% from April.

The SNB lowered its key rate once again, Microsoft, Nvidia and Apple continue to dominate and who holds France's sovereign debt? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.