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Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

The Magnificent Seven’s market cap tops the world’s biggest stock markets, earnings growth decorrelated from R&D investments, and analysts prepare for next year’s probable rate cuts. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

A late rally helped the major US equity indexes end flat to modestly higher for the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index outperformed the S&P 500 Index for the third time in the past four weeks, helping narrow its significant underperformance. Within the S&P 500, energy stocks lagged as domestic oil prices fell below USD 70 per barrel for the first time since June. On the Macro side, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report surprised modestly on the upside, with employers adding 199k jobs in November versus consensus expectations of around 180k. The unemployment rate fell back to 3.7%. The bigger surprise was the University of Michigan’s preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment in December, which jumped to its highest level since August on calming inflation fears.

In December, bond indexes are once again on the rise, extending the exceptional performance seen in November, despite a solid U.S. job report. While the end of the year seems to be proceeding smoothly, certain market events, such as the potential conclusion of the BOJ's negative interest rate policy, remain firmly in focus for 2024.

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08/12/2023

• Mo'vember marks best month for US bonds in 40 years as investors anticipate rate cuts in 2024 • Global bond and stock markets added over $11 trillion in capitalization in November. That is the second biggest monthly gain in history (Nov 2020 added $12.5 trillion). • Gold and digital (aka Bitcoin) surged while dollar dumped.

While the US secures its long-term energy supply and industrial capacity, The cost of hedging against a market crash hits a 5 year low. China buys massive amounts of gold, and the investment world says goodbye to Charlie Munger. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

The major US equity indexes ended higher for the week, with the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq rounding out on Thursday their best monthly gains (8.9% and 10.7%, respectively) since July 2020. Falling Treasury yields seemed to continue to boost sentiment, and a broad index of the bond market recorded its best monthly gain since 1985. On the macro side, inflation continues to cool down. In the US, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in October, a slowdown from September. The yoy increase is down to 3.5% — the lowest level since April 2021.

In November 2023, Global Aggregate bonds achieved their second-best performance in three decades, driven by lower growth expectations and reduced inflation. However, this outstanding performance is not without challenges, including persistent rate volatility, a deeply inverted yield curve, and a term premium in negative territory.

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01/12/2023

Nvidia has reported a threefold increase in sales driven by the boom in AI chips, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 ETFs are now within 2% of their all-time highs and watch out for OJ and Uranium, the two mega bull markets nobody’s talking about! Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Stocks closed higher over a quiet holiday-shortened trading week (US markets were closed on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday and closed early Friday). The big event of the week was Nvidia Q3 results. The stock fell despite the company beating earnings and revenue estimates as it issued cautious guidance because of export restrictions to China. Nvidia’s weakness was reflected in the underperformance of the Nasdaq over the week though growth stocks outperformed value stocks overall. On the Macro side, durable goods orders dropped 5.4% in October, which is the second-biggest decline since April 2020. Slowing growth signals and dwindling inflation fears may have contributed to strong demand for a USD 16 billion auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds on Monday.

From global influence to economic indicators, let's dive into the facets of this retail phenomenon!

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24/11/2023

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