As the ECB and BoC initiate rate reductions of 25 basis points, contrasting sharply with the U.S.'s robust job market and steady rates, the world turns its eyes to the upcoming FOMC meeting to gauge the potential implications of this growing transatlantic policy divergence.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices both reached record intraday highs during the week while small & mid caps pulled back. Growth stocks outpaced value shares by the widest amount since early in the year on the back of falling longer-term interest rates. The start of the week brought some downbeat economic readings (e.g ISM manufacturing below 50.0), which appeared to lead to a return of worries about “stagflation” among some investors. The picture brightened at midweek as the ISM’s services jumped to 53.8 in May, its highest level in nine months. The upside surprise in the official US jobs report on Friday morning didn’t lead to a negative market's reaction as it was tempered by an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.0%, its highest level since January 2022.

After months of speculations, this week could mark the start of the long-awaited global rate cut cycle across developed economies. (...)

Economic shift: US slows, Europe rises, Asia mixed As mid-2024 nears, the US economy shows signs of moderation, Europe gradually recovers, and Asia sees mixed performance with strong Chinese exports and a stabilising outlook in Japan despite a weak yen. Nvidia continues to live up to the hype, GameStop trading mania is back and in a surprising move, the U.S. SEC approved eight applications for spot Ethereum ETFs. Each month, the Syz investment team takes you through the last month in ten charts.

Nvidia’s market cap increased by $450 billion last week, meaning it now exceeds the total DAX index! Commodities continue to outperform the equity and bond markets. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

As the ECB gears up for its imminent policy meeting, expectations are high for a rate cut—the first since March 2016. Yet, the journey beyond this initial step is fraught with uncertainty, as Europe grapples with fluctuating inflation and complex economic signals, highlighting the volatile terrain central banks continue to navigate.

The main US equity indices closed lower over the holiday-shortened week but rounded out a month of gains. In contrast to much of the month, small-caps performed better than large-caps, and value stocks held up better than growth shares. The Nasdaq was especially weak, due in part to a sharp decline in cloud software provider Salesforce, which fell sharply after releasing Q1 revenues that missed consensus estimates. Much of the week’s relatively light economic calendar came in roughly in line with expectations. One prominent factor weighing on sentiment appeared to be the Treasury Department’s midweek auctions of five- and seven-year notes, which were met with subdued demand. The weak sales raised concerns that funding the U.S. deficit will drive up yields at a time when the Fed appears to be in no rush to cut rates.

Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to embark on a new phase of its monetary policy: normalisation. After maintaining very restrictive rates to combat higher-than-target inflation, the ECB is poised to ease this restrictiveness. The first rate cut, expected next week, comes 266 days after the last rate hike, closely aligning with the historical average between cycles. Based on recent comments from ECB members, the rate cut is almost a certainty. However, the path to the terminal rate, which should be the neutral rate—which neither stimulates nor restrains the economy—will be long and winding.

Following its quarterly results, Nvidia's stock surpassed $1,000 per share. Ether (ETH) saw a significant rise ahead of the anticipated launch of the first spot ETFs and the cost of servicing the US public debt is projected to surpass defence spending. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

In just ten days, the ECB will unveil its latest policy decisions, potentially starting with a modest rate cut of 25 basis points. While this initial step is anticipated, the path beyond remains clouded in uncertainty, highlighting the unpredictable economic landscape we find ourselves navigating.