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The summer seems sweet for bond market which just received a welcome boost from the latest US CPI released below expectations. The market is now priced more than 90% chance to get a rate cut in September.



With job market challenges potentially hastening Federal Reserve rate cuts before the elections, and looming expansive fiscal promises exerting pressure on long-term yields, the stage is set for significant movements in the US bond landscape.



Amid a mix of cooling economic indicators and heightened electoral drama, the bond markets have entered a summer period marked by cautious optimism and strategic recalibrations, setting the stage for a quarter shaped by both policy expectations and political outcomes.



The fixed income landscape quietly navigates through a sea of persistent economic and political uncertainties, marking a subdued yet tense beginning to the summer.



Last week could have wreaked havoc on the U.S. bond market with CPI/PPI data and the Fed's decisions, but inflationary pressures are easing and the job market appears to be normalizing—a perfect mix for bond performance. However, Europe's outlook is darkening with a snap election in France.



As the ECB and BoC initiate rate reductions of 25 basis points, contrasting sharply with the U.S.'s robust job market and steady rates, the world turns its eyes to the upcoming FOMC meeting to gauge the potential implications of this growing transatlantic policy divergence.



As the ECB gears up for its imminent policy meeting, expectations are high for a rate cut—the first since March 2016. Yet, the journey beyond this initial step is fraught with uncertainty, as Europe grapples with fluctuating inflation and complex economic signals, highlighting the volatile terrain central banks continue to navigate.



In just ten days, the ECB will unveil its latest policy decisions, potentially starting with a modest rate cut of 25 basis points. While this initial step is anticipated, the path beyond remains clouded in uncertainty, highlighting the unpredictable economic landscape we find ourselves navigating.



Despite a recent less hawkish stance from the Fed and emerging signs of a weakening US job market, last week's inflation figures suggest a cautiously improving outlook for fixed income investments. However, ongoing challenges such as increased supply, diminished foreign demand, and a persistently inverted yield curve continue to pose risks.



A week of sharp movements in U.S. Treasury yields reflects a broader market recalibration, as fresh economic data and Fed rhetoric temper expectations for rate cuts, casting new shadows on fixed income outlooks.



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