Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

This week witnessed a stable fixed income market, marked by lower rate volatility and flat performance, all leading up to a significant week ahead. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank are set to deliver their latest decisions on monetary policies.



US Treasuries experienced their largest weekly inflows in 16 weeks, totaling $16 billion, as the release of CPI data prompted short sellers to cover their positions. The price action was significant, resulting in a 1.5% gain for US Treasuries bonds, making it one of the best weeks in 2023.



This week witnessed the clearance of major resistances in the bond market, as the 2-year US Treasury yield surpassed 5%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields rose above 4%.



This week, central bank officials delivered a strong and unified hawkish message, signaling the likelihood of higher interest rates for an extended period.



The week witnessed surprising moves by central banks (Norges, BoE), driven by persistent concerns over inflation.



FOMC decisions and US CPI could set the tone for this summer. Currently, the 10-year yield is below the channel line at around 3.80%, but if it rises above this level, risks will start to shift to the upside on rates.



In the United States, May experienced a notable increase in yields, with an average rise of 25 bps. This rise was supported by the extension of the US debt ceiling, which mitigated a significant downside risk to the growth outlook.



The potential resolution of the debt ceiling issue and the release of key economic indicators, such as inflation and unemployment figures, further intensified pressure on government bonds, causing them to decline by over 2% in May.



The past week proved challenging for U.S. Treasury bonds, which experienced a decline of -1.4% due to progress made in debt ceiling talks. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield saw a significant increase of nearly 30bps, marking its largest weekly rise since June 2022.



US Treasury yields increased slightly during the week, as progress in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and worsening initial claims were not enough to offset the highest level (3.2%) in the University of Michigan's long-term inflation survey since 2011.



1 2 3 4

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks