Following the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell signaled the Fed's reluctance to cut rates in March, emphasizing the need for additional "confidence" in declining inflation figures. This careful stance reflects the ongoing robustness of the American job market, suggesting that a methodical approach is currently favored.

This week's Fixed Income Weekly hones in on the ECB's steady policy with a slight nod towards future rate cuts and solid U.S. economic data, leading to a pronounced steepening in yield curves. These developments are fueled by declining inflation, underlining the resilience of economic trends in a shifting inflationary landscape.

This week, central banks globally face the intricate task of balancing market anticipations with their policy decisions, as they address the aggressive expectations for rate cuts amidst evolving economic landscapes.

In this week's report, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of the US yield curve. A comforting US Producer Price Index (PPI) countering a slight rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has pushed the US 2-year yield to its lowest since May 2023, while long-term interest rates demonstrate stability.

2024's first week veered from 2023's end-of-year bond rally to a sharp sell-off, as widening spreads and rising rates introduced a sobering start. This correction, following the potent rally since mid-October, alongside primary market activities pressuring spreads and rates, underscores the inherent volatility in fixed income markets and sets a cautious tone for January.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a barometer for the global fixed income market, has recorded its largest two-month gain ever, marking a significant turnaround. This rally concludes a challenging period, bringing a much-needed positive annual performance close to +6% after two consecutive years of declines.

The journey through 2023 was an unexpected odyssey for fixed income markets, marked by challenges but ultimately culminating in positive performance after two negative years. Despite unchanged U.S. rates throughout the year, carry emerged as the pivotal component driving returns in rate strategies.

The Federal Reserve's latest meeting signaled an anticipated 75 bp rate cut in 2024, driving the 10-year US Treasury yield below 4% from a recent 5% high. While markets have welcomed this dovish turn, it raises concerns about potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.

In December, bond indexes are once again on the rise, extending the exceptional performance seen in November, despite a solid U.S. job report. While the end of the year seems to be proceeding smoothly, certain market events, such as the potential conclusion of the BOJ's negative interest rate policy, remain firmly in focus for 2024.

In November 2023, Global Aggregate bonds achieved their second-best performance in three decades, driven by lower growth expectations and reduced inflation. However, this outstanding performance is not without challenges, including persistent rate volatility, a deeply inverted yield curve, and a term premium in negative territory.