19 Dec 2025

A $100B "Santa Rally" might have arrived via the UAE sovereign wealth funds

Here is the breakdown of what is going on: 1. The $100 Billion Life Raft 💰 OpenAI is reportedly looking to raise a staggering $100B (Source: WSJ). With a target valuation of $830B, this isn't just a fundraising round—it’s a geopolitical event. Sam Altman isn't just looking for "growth capital"; he’s securing a bridge to 2030 profitability. 2. From Debt to Equity 📉 Private credit markets (like Blue Owl) have been tightening the taps on AI infrastructure. OpenAI is pivoting from cheaper debt to massive equity dilution. Why? Because when you’re "incinerating" cash to build the future, you need a sovereign-sized safety net. 3. The Oracle "Survival" Surge 🚀 This isn't just about OpenAI. This cash flows directly into compute. Oracle and CoreWeave are the primary beneficiaries. This funding ensures OpenAI can pay its hyperscaler partners for years to come. The market is breathing a sigh of relief: Bankruptcy risks for AI infrastructure plays are evaporating. 4. The Credit Default Swap (CDS) Collapse 📉 Before tonight, Oracle’s CDS was at a 16-year high (~156bps). Investors were pricing in serious risk. Now? We expect a short-covering frenzy. The "AI winter" just got hit by a heatwave of Emirati capital. The Bottom Line: The world was waiting for the US to backstop the AI revolution. Instead, Abu Dhabi stepped up. This $100B injection doesn't just fund a chatbot; it stabilizes the entire AI ecosystem for the next 24 months. Is this the start of the 2025 bull run, or just a very expensive bridge to the unknown?

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