According to the WSJ, more oil is now coming out of the Gulf than before the Iran Wa
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Meanwhile, today's Eurostat report shows eurozone industrial production contracted another 1.1% yoy. Europe’s energy shock is becoming an industrial competitiveness crisis. European diesel prices are approaching $200 per barrel, while eurozone industrial production has contracted by another 1.1% year on year. Germany’s industrial output is already almost 10% below its 2021 level. Another energy shock is hitting an industrial base with limited room to absorb it. The transmission mechanism is clear: → Higher transportation costs. → Higher production costs. → Renewed inflationary pressure. But pricing power has limits. When businesses can no longer pass higher costs on to customers, margins compress. Production is reduced. Investment is postponed. More factories become economically unviable. This is the risk of another stagflationary shock: weaker activity alongside higher prices. For the ECB, the dilemma is increasingly difficult. Raising rates could contain inflation, but would also weaken demand, increase sovereign financing pressures and accelerate industrial decline. Europe faces a growing risk that a temporary energy shock leaves permanent damage to its industrial capacity. Source: Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance Bloomberg
Lufthansa is taking steps to address difficulties in sourcing kerosene at Frankfurt Airport, one of Europe’s main air traffic hubs. The German airline has put in place precautionary measures involving the loading of additional fuel on certain flights, with the aim of minimising the need to refuel upon arrival at the German airport. The decision, reported by the German newspaper *Bild*, concerns an operational strategy known as ‘tankering’: aircraft carry more fuel than is necessary for the flight they are about to undertake, so as to have a reserve available for the next flight and reduce their reliance on fuel supplies at the destination airport. Lufthansa has stated that, thanks to the measures taken, ‘no flight cancellations are currently planned’. The measures will remain in force until further notice and will be updated as the situation develops.
Then the attacks resumed. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar and Oman tell the story: ▪️ Jan–Feb: 18.9 million barrels/day ▪️ May trough: 6.5 million — down 66% ▪️ September: 14.7 million ▪️ October so far: 17.3 million — 91% of pre-war levels The recovery relied on ingenuity: Saudi pipelines diverted crude to the Red Sea, while shuttle tankers carried barrels through Hormuz to supertankers waiting outside. But the cumulative damage remains enormous: 1.7 billion fewer barrels exported between March and September than at the pre-war pace. And October’s rebound is fragile. ⚠️ The figures cover only the first two weeks. Six ships were hit around Hormuz on 11 October. More than 10 empty supertankers have turned back near Fujairah. Export routes can adapt. A sustained recovery still requires security. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Gulf News