--- title: AI MAY BE TRIGGERING THE THIRD WAVE OF INFLATION. description: "Even Tim Cook recently said the current cost pressures are unlike anything he's seen in more than 40 years in the business.\n\nThe first inflation wave came from supply chain disruptions. The second was driven by tariffs and energy prices. But this third wave could be different.\n\nTariffs can be negotiated. Oil prices eventually fall as supply catches up. AI infrastructure spending doesn't work that way.\n\nThis isn't a temporary supply shock. It's a massive demand shock that's still in its early stages.\n\nThe five largest hyperscalers are expected to spend roughly $741 billion on AI infrastructure this year—up about 75% from last year. Much of that investment hasn't even translated into physical deployments yet.\n\nThat means today's price pressures may be the beginning, not the peak.\n\nHere's why.\n\nAI requires enormous amounts of high-bandwidth memory and advanced chips. Those same components are also used in smartphones, laptops, gaming consoles, automobiles, and countless other electronics.\n\nAs AI companies absorb a growing share of the available supply, they aren't just increasing the cost of AI—they're putting upward pressure on prices across the broader electronics market.\n\nWe're already seeing signs of that.\n\nApple and Microsoft recently raised prices on products including MacBooks, iPads, and Xbox consoles while pointing to higher component costs and memory constraints. Nintendo and Sony had already announced similar price increases weeks earlier.\n\nThis isn't one company passing through higher costs.\n\nIt's an entire hardware industry repricing around the same supply bottleneck.\n\nThe Federal Reserve's long-term assumption is that AI will eventually offset these inflationary pressures through productivity gains.\n\nThat may ultimately prove true.\n\nBut several analysts, including UBS, argue those productivity benefits could take years to fully materialize, while the cost increases are happening today.\n\nThat leaves the Fed facing a difficult balancing act: keeping interest rates elevated through a period where the technology expected to reduce inflation over the long run may be contributing to higher prices in the short run.\n\nIf that's the case, this inflation cycle may prove more complex than the tariff- and energy-driven shocks policymakers have dealt with so far.\n\nSource: Bull Theory on X" image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-26-2026-03-10-32-9848-PM.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 26 Jun 2026 - - - #### AI MAY BE TRIGGERING THE THIRD WAVE OF INFLATION. Even Tim Cook recently said the current cost pressures are unlike anything he's seen in more than 40 years in the business. The first inflation wave came from supply chain disruptions. The second was driven by tariffs and energy prices. But this third wave could be different. Tariffs can be negotiated. Oil prices eventually fall as supply catches up. AI infrastructure spending doesn't work that way. This isn't a temporary supply shock. It's a massive demand shock that's still in its early stages. The five largest hyperscalers are expected to spend roughly $741 billion on AI infrastructure this year—up about 75% from last year. Much of that investment hasn't even translated into physical deployments yet. That means today's price pressures may be the beginning, not the peak. Here's why. AI requires enormous amounts of high-bandwidth memory and advanced chips. Those same components are also used in smartphones, laptops, gaming consoles, automobiles, and countless other electronics. As AI companies absorb a growing share of the available supply, they aren't just increasing the cost of AI—they're putting upward pressure on prices across the broader electronics market. We're already seeing signs of that. Apple and Microsoft recently raised prices on products including MacBooks, iPads, and Xbox consoles while pointing to higher component costs and memory constraints. Nintendo and Sony had already announced similar price increases weeks earlier. This isn't one company passing through higher costs. It's an entire hardware industry repricing around the same supply bottleneck. The Federal Reserve's long-term assumption is that AI will eventually offset these inflationary pressures through productivity gains. That may ultimately prove true. But several analysts, including UBS, argue those productivity benefits could take years to fully materialize, while the cost increases are happening today. That leaves the Fed facing a difficult balancing act: keeping interest rates elevated through a period where the technology expected to reduce inflation over the long run may be contributing to higher prices in the short run. If that's the case, this inflation cycle may prove more complex than the tariff- and energy-driven shocks policymakers have dealt with so far. Source: Bull Theory on X [#AI|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![AI MAY BE TRIGGERING THE THIRD WAVE OF INFLATION.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-26-2026-03-10-32-9848-PM.jpg) ![AI MAY BE TRIGGERING THE THIRD WAVE OF INFLATION.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-26-2026-03-10-32-9848-PM.jpg) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Food for Thought|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) #### [The AI bond rout has now hit the blue-chip tenants as well.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-ai-bond-rout-has-now-hit-the-blue-chip-tenants-as-well?hsLang=en) Meta's Hyperion: 91c. Hut 8's Nvidia-leased sites: 91-93. Microsoft-leased Excalibur: 87. All were sold as the "safe" end of the AI trade. Well, it's now very quickly repricing like the risky end. Source: Nic @puckrin, FT **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 16/10/2026 [Food for Thought|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) #### [Frankfurt Airport facing kerosene shortage. The reasons are maintenance of a pipeline and low river water levels](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/frankfurt-airport-facing-kerosene-shortage.-the-reasons-are-maintenance-of-a-pipeline-and-low-river-water-levels?hsLang=en) Lufthansa is taking steps to address difficulties in sourcing kerosene at Frankfurt Airport, one of Europe’s main air traffic hubs. The German airline has put in place precautionary measures involving the loading of additional fuel on certain flights, with the aim of minimising the need to refuel upon arrival at the German airport. The decision, reported by the German newspaper \*Bild\*, concerns an operational strategy known as ‘tankering’: aircraft carry more fuel than is necessary for the flight they are about to undertake, so as to have a reserve available for the next flight and reduce their reliance on fuel supplies at the destination airport. Lufthansa has stated that, thanks to the measures taken, ‘no flight cancellations are currently planned’. The measures will remain in force until further notice and will be updated as the situation develops. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 16/10/2026 [earnings|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) #### [Anthropic just printed $16.8bn in ONE quarter.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/anthropic-just-printed-16.8bn-in-one-quarter?hsLang=en) +46% QoQ. Profitable (adjusted). Cash-flow positive. $1.70 of revenue per $1 of compute. Few companies in history have printed a quarter like this. So why is the perp future on Binance down 14% from its high? 📉 Because markets price the slope, not the level. → Monthly run-rate growth: ~33% (Jan–Jul) vs 3–7% (Aug–Sep) → $100bn by year-end now needs Q4 to roughly double that pace → Token prices have halved in a month → Usage up, spend flat (Ramp data) → OpenAI is back, and it’s now a two-horse race → “Adjusted” profit, with $518bn of compute commitments ahead The key question: Can volume grow faster than prices fall? What to watch: the S-1 (~25 Oct), token prices, Q4 run rate, credit spreads. Spectacular numbers. Harder questions. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 15/10/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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