President Biden announces he is dropping his re-election bid and endorses Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.
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The 10-year yield (blue) and Trump's Political Betting probabilities (orange). The chart starts the day Biden dropped out. Coincidence, or are these series related? If they are related, what happens to 10-year yields if the orange line (man) goes to 100 in 14 days? Source: Bianco Research
- They said a Harris administration would be a 4.7% headwind to overall S&P EPS growth and a Trump administration would be a 4% tailwind to S&P earnings. - The only caveat here is if we have a split congress. If so, Kamala may win but not be able to pass sweeping tax policies. Given current market action, it seems the market is currently pricing in those 2 scenarios: 1) Either Trump wins 2) or if Kamala does, she can’t pass her new tax policies because of a divided congress. Source: amit @amitisinvesting on X, BofA