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This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.
👉According to the Goldman Sachs nowcast of central bank and other institutional gold buying on the London OTC market, October saw central banks buy a whopping 64 tonnes in October (vs. pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes), with China once again the largest buyer adding 55 tonnes, which is striking since the official number reported by the PBOC was one-tenth that, or just 5 tonnes. In other words, China is secretly buying up ~10x more gold than it admits. 👉Commenting on the surge in purchases, the Goldman analyst writes that "surveys and history suggest that EM central banks buy gold as a hedge against financial and geopolitical shocks" and adds that "central bank purchases will remain elevated because fears about geopolitical shocks have structurally risen since the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, and because relatively low gold shares in EM central banks reserves vs. DMs leaves room for growth." In fact, 81% of the central banks surveyed by the World Gold Council expect global central bank gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, with none anticipating a decline. 🚨 As shown on the chart below, what is far more striking is the staggering (and growing) divergence between the modest amounts of gold purchases reported by the hashtag#PBOC and the far greater amount China has actually purchased on the London OTC market, in a clear attempt to mask its staggering demand for the precious metal, and be extension, its diversification away from the dollar... Source; www.zerohedge.com
”History shows only central banks end melt-ups”… Source: BofA, Wasteland Capital
Fifth cut in a row... Dropping the policy rate from 5% to 3.25% in 2024—150 bps total. But it’s not working fast enough: -Unemployment: 6.8% (highest in 8 years). -GDP per capita: Down 6 straight quarters. -Canadian Dollar $CAD at 4.5-year low -Former BOC Governor says “We’re already in a recession.” Market is pricing in another ~50bps of cuts by July 2025 ➡️ 2.75% overnight rate. Source: Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Bloomberg
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