➡️ RATES: The Fed cuts key overnight interest rate by 25bps to 4.00-4.25% range Fed projections show additional 50bps of cuts by year end, another 25 bps of cuts in each of the next two years. Fed says it is attentive to both sides of dual mandate ➡️VOTE SPLIT: New governor Miran dissented on policy decision, favoring 50bps cut. So only 1 dissent is positive. The Fed is remaining unified under Powell 😊 POWELL: "There wasn't widespread support at all for a 50 bps cut today." ➡️LABOUR MARKET: Says downside risks to employment have risen Job gains have slowed, unemployment has edged up but remains low ➡️INFLATION: Inflation has moved up and remains 'somewhat elevated' ➡️ECONOMY: Economic growth moderated over first half of this year ➡️ BALANCE SHEET: Fed maintains current pace of balance sheet drawdown ➡️SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: GDP forecasts raised for 2025, 2026 and 2027 Unemployment rate forecast for 2025 unchanged, lowered for 2026 and 2027 PCE forecast for 2025 unchanged, raised for 2026, unchanged for 2027 Core PCE forecast for 2025 unchanged, raised for 2026 and unchanged for 2027 ➡️DOTS: The dots for 2025 were massively shifted lower with one member calling for 5 cuts in 2025. 7 of the 19 members see no more rate-cuts this year... 9 of 19 see 2 more cuts 2 of 19 see 1 more cuts 6 of 19 see no more cuts 1 sees 1 rate hike 1 sees 5 cuts (this is Stephen Miran) ⚠️Fed Funds rate forecast cut for 2025 from 3.9% to 3.6% or another 2 rate cuts. ⚠️The central bank gave a more hawkish outlook for rates in 2026, where officials are predicting only one more rate cut in the new year, slower than the current market pricing of two-to-three. The median forecast for 2026 pencils in just one more rate cut, after the two further moves this year. ⚠️ And then another cut in 2027 to 3.1% That would mean 125 basis points of cutting from September 2025 until the end of 2027. This way short of the 300 basis points Trump has wanted for, like, now. 📌 In a nutshell: The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too... And now the HAWKISH 🤢 side of today's decision and ensuing press conference >>> Powell just said during his press conference after the decision he sees the move as a “risk-management cut.” Powell’s comments suggest this move was more of an insurance cut in case the economy dramatically slowed. Source: zerohedge, CNBC