27 Sep 2023

Bond tracking ETF, $TLT, just closed at its lowest level since February 2011

The ETF is now officially down 50% from its high just 3 years ago in 2020. Yet, investors continue to desperately pour money into Treasuries despite the massive underperformance. Indeed, despite the rise in bond yields, investors keep piling into $TLT (iShares US Treasuries 20year+) etf. Another $750m last week as 60/40 portfolios are stubbornly allocating funds to this underperforming asset, hoping for a return to a disinflationary environment. As mentioned by Eric Balchunas / Bloomberg, it is quite rare seeing an ETF taking in so much money ($16b YTD, #2 overall) while being down so much and so consistently (especially when you can get just as much yield with no duration risk...). Such a behaviour happened with the China Internet ETF $KWEB... not a great omen... Source: Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, Tavi Costa


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