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The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
+23% above March.... In 1 month This isn't a coincidence. It's the market rerouting. Hormuz closes → Asian buyers panic → empty VLCCs race to US Gulf Coast → American crude fills the gap Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
But as Bloomberg highlights, the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) reflects deeper forces. Even before the conflict: - Aging fleet - Tight capacity - Sanctions limiting supply ➡️ The war accelerated existing trends. Now the question isn’t how far it’s gone, but what’s changed. Structural tightness remains: - Longer, more complex trade routes - Sourcing shifting farther away - Rising demand for shipping capacity ➡️ That’s why gains may not fully unwind, even with peace. As John K. notes: the story may shift from war-driven to fundamentally driven. The fundamentals still point to persistence. Source. Bloomberg

