Probability of a Fed rate hike next week is approaching 100%.
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The quits rate, the % of workers voluntarily exiting their jobs fell to 1.9% in September, the lowest since June 2020. Americans are increasingly depending on their current jobs as the hiring pace has declined. Data for October is due today. Source: Global Markets Investor
Since the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis, this percentage has increased by ~25 points. By comparison, Europe and Japan’s share have dropped by ~15 and ~5 percentage points, respectively. As a result, the US' share of global market cap is now 4 TIMES larger than Europe and Japan COMBINED. This comes as the S&P 500 has rallied 450% over the last 15 years compared to a 70% and 310% gain of the Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225. The US stock market has never been larger. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, SG Cross Asset Research, Factset
This marks the 8th consecutive quarter of operating losses for the central bank. As a result, cumulative operating losses reached a massive $210 billion over the last 2 years. This comes as the Fed has been paying hundreds of billions in interest to banks and money market funds. At the same time, income the Fed has earned on Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities has declined. Source: The Kobeissi Letter