Short positions are surging in Treasuries.
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France now pays more to borrow than Italy. And Vanguard is warning the pressure could intensify. The $12 trillion asset manager sees deteriorating creditworthiness, political paralysis and an election that could bring further fiscal loosening. The bond market is already sending a message: 📈 French 10-year yields topped 4.8%, their highest since 2008. 📈 The spread over Germany briefly exceeded 120 basis points. 📈 France’s borrowing premium over Italy reached a record. Meanwhile, the deficit is expected to reach 5.5% of GDP this year. Next year’s planned debt issuance: a record €340 billion. Vanguard sees a German spread above 150 basis points as a strong possibility if public finances worsen. Some investors see a buying opportunity, arguing the risks are already priced in. But the central question remains: Can France restore fiscal credibility before markets demand an even higher price? Source: FT
Core PCE YoY: 3.0% (Est. 3.3%, Prior 3.3%) Core PCE MoM: 0.2% (Est. 0.3%, Prior 0.2%) PCE YoY: 3.4% (Est. 3.7%, Prior 3.7%) PCE MoM: 0.3% (Est. 0.3%, Prior 0.2%) Historical YoY figures were revised downward in the 2026 National Economic Accounts annual update, driven by BEA methodology changes to price-versus-quantity splits in portfolio management, legal services, and computer software. The softer inflation picture is easing pressure on the Fed to stay tighter for longer, with October rate hike odds falling again. That is generally SUPPORTIVE for stocks, precious metals and crypto, as lower rate expectations can boost liquidity and risk appetite. Source: Coinbureau, Wall St Engine. Macro

