Since March 2009, the S&P 500 has now experienced 34 corrections of 5% or more
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What is Nvidia’s biggest risk? It has nothing to do with Jensen Huang. It is rather the fact that AI might keep booming while Nvidia would capture a smaller share of the spending. The uncertainty around Jensen Huang indeed comes at a difficult time. Two shifts are already testing Nvidia’s grip on the AI market. 1️⃣ Closed models are winning the dollars. As hyperscalers move more workloads onto their own chips, Nvidia could capture less of every dollar they spend on compute. 2️⃣ Open models are winning on volume. That should favor Nvidia’s general-purpose GPUs. But Chinese models are taking a meaningful share of that volume, which makes export controls one of the biggest questions for investors. Then there’s succession. Who could take over? Could Jensen still shape the technology roadmap in another role? The ripple effects go beyond Nvidia. ▪️ Circular AI financing faces a test. If your funding model assumes Nvidia will step in with a backstop, it’s time to reopen the spreadsheet. ▪️ Rival chipmakers and their suppliers could gain ground as customers diversify where they buy compute. Nvidia may look cheap. But low P/E is not an investment thesis. The 1 million dollar question is the following: How much of the next wave of AI spending will Nvidia actually capture? Source #chart: SPEAR INVEST
Nvidia was the world's largest company just a few weeks ago. Now: - Down 36% from its all time high. - Over $2 trillion wiped from its market cap. - Lost the No. 1 spot to Apple. - Hit its lowest level since July 2025. - Headed for its 6th straight weekly drop, the longest since 2012. - CEO resigned, with an ongoing investigation. Source: Bull Theory, companiesmarketcap.com
Anthropic will make ~1,000 employees worth +$100m at $2 trillion market cap. There's ~11,000 Americans with $100m in investable assets]. Source: shirish

