Soft landing? Hard landing? Or no landing?
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The Ifo Business Index fell to 84.7 in December, down from 85.6 in November –its lowest level since May 2020. This is far below the long-term average of 96.6 and looks weak even compared to recent years. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the index has averaged just 88.2. The latest drop was driven by a sharp decline in the expectations component, which fell from 87 in November to 84.4 in Dec. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had predicted a slight uptick and none saw a retreat of that scale. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Last FOMC interest rate decision of 2024 is today at 2PM ET, followed by the usual press conference. A 25bps rate cut looks like a done deal. Key questions:1) Why is he cutting while stocks are ATH and Core CPI above 3% 43 months in a row= 2) Will it be a "hawkish cut" with significant upside revisions to growth and inflation forecasts + downward revision to the dot plot? Merry Christmas Mr Powell Source image: TrendSpider
Yes, the Fed has already cut near all-time-highs and you know what ❓ The Bulls 🐮 Liked it 👍 The S&P 500 is less than 2% away from all-time highs the day before a Fed decision. Since 1980, there were 20 other times they cut rates within 2% of ATHs. The S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 times 🚀 Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick