Interest rate cut expectations continue to scale back: Markets now see a ~38% chance of 4 interest rate cuts in 2024
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Four major central banks. One defining week. Here’s what’s coming 👇 💵 Federal Reserve — Expected to cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, and all eyes are on what comes next for its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program. 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada — Also forecasted to trim rates by 0.25%, signaling growing concern over slowing growth. 🇪🇺 European Central Bank — Likely to hold steady, keeping the focus on inflation trends across the Eurozone. 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan — Expected to stay the course, balancing yen weakness with cautious optimism. This week could set the tone for global liquidity, currencies, and market sentiment heading into year-end. 🌍.
🧱 Investment eats up 42% of GDP — nearly double the global average. 🛒 Household spending? Just 37% — vs. 60% in most economies. The result: too many factories, not enough consumers. Property prices are still falling, savings rates are sky-high (20%+), and deflation has taken hold. Consumer prices are down, producer prices have been negative for years, and exports are doing all the heavy lifting — but even that’s cracking under U.S. tariffs. Instead of fixing the imbalance, Beijing is doubling down on the old playbook: more infrastructure, more state-led projects, little direct help for households. Economists say China needs a massive rebalancing — trillions in fiscal transfers to boost consumption and rebuild trust in the safety net. But that would mean loosening state control… and that’s not the direction things are heading. 📉 Without change, growth could slow to ~3% a year. 🧊 Deflation lingers. ⚙️ Factories hum, but consumers stay quiet. China’s still building the world’s factories — but it’s running out of people to sell to. Source: StockMarket.news
The use of the facility is now a daily occurrence; the regional banking sector obviously has a liquidity issue. That's a total of $21 billion in 4 weeks. Source: The Great Martin on X