Slow food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

Below are the top 10 events and surprises that could impact financial markets and the global economy in the New Year. These are not forecasts, but potential macroeconomic, geopolitical, or market events that are not anticipated by financial markets. We also try to assess the probability of occurrence (high, medium, low) of each of them.

Gemini 3 has just been ranked as the best performing AI model, a reversal that few saw coming. A year ago, OpenAI models were leading the charts.

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Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

U.S. stocks declined during the holiday-shortened week. The Nasdaq Composite performed worst for the week, followed by the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P MidCap 400 Index held up best but still shed 0.67% and 0.71%, respectively. Within the S&P 500 Index, the energy sector outperformed as heightened geopolitical tensions drove oil prices higher. On the US macro side, lower mortgage rates and wage growth fuel homebuyer momentum, as pending home sales Index rose 3.3% in November, marking the largest month-over-month jump since February 2023.

Rangebound interest rates and credit spreads will require bond investors to focus on the yield carry and to be selective in sectors and companies’ exposure

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30/12/2025

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