Flash note

The interest rate cut by the Fed is highly anticipated but the narrative will be important for sentiment and the remaining days of trading this year.

A shift in the 2026 central bank outlook contributes to driving rates higher, as fiscal policy supports growth and inflation prospects across all major regions

Inflation remains Americans’ top concern while Swiss inflation hit zero. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher, amid investor hopes for an interest rate cut from the Fed at its upcoming meeting. The Nasdaq Composite led the major indexes higher, advancing 0.91%, followed by the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which rose 0.84%. The S&P 500 Index lagged but still posted a modest gain for the week. Mag7 stocks outperformed the S&P 493. On the macro front, ISM Manufacturing activity index continues to slide while ISM services expand at fastest pace since February. ADP Private payrolls dropped by most since 2023. US PCE inflation index rose 0.3% month over month in September, in line with August’s reading.

AI-driven market nervousness is palpable, with recent news flow providing ample fodder for bears.

A quasi-certain Fed rate cut in December, the end of the QT program and a rebound in sentiment toward credit and EM Debt lifted bond markets last week

Meanwhile, Big Tech carries the S&P 500. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher, boosted by dovish comments from some Fed officials and several weaker-than-expected economic reports that seemed to reinforce the idea that a December rate cut remains on track. Small-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap peers, as the Russell 2000 Index advanced 5.5%. The Nasdaq Composite also posted strong returns, rebounding from the prior week’s sell-off as concerns regarding elevated valuations and spending on AI appeared to take a back seat to optimism around the growth potential from the technology. In economic news, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% in September (below +0.4% estimates). September PPI rose 0.3% in September, in line with estimates.

A repricing of Fed rate cut odds pushes USD yields lower, while credit spreads widen