Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher. Small-caps index Russell 2000 outperformed (+3.5% over the week) followed by the Dow Jones (+2.3%). Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at all-time highs for the second week in a row. Much of the focus during the week centered around the progress of the Trump administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, which was narrowly passed by the Senate on Tuesday and by the House of Representatives on Thursday afternoon. Trade-related headlines also continued to flow during the week, with President Trump announcing a trade deal with Vietnam on Wednesday and making comments around negotiations with several other trade partners ahead of the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline, when the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is expected to end.

US bonds had a strong month, with both interest rates and credit spreads lower, while European fixed income had to discount higher than expected German government bond issuances and the possible end of the ECB rate cut cycle.

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US stocks rallied on the back of de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, reports that the U.S. and China signed a new trade deal, and comments from several U.S. government officials indicating that more trade deals were close to the finish line. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite, up 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively, both closed at record highs. On the macro side, Core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation measure showed modest uptick in May, up 2.7% yoy. S&P Global reported that U.S. business activity expanded in June, albeit at a moderately slower rate than in May. U.S. Treasury yields decreased in response to some of the week’s softer-than-expected economic data as well as comments from several Fed officials indicating rate cuts could be on the table sooner than many have been anticipating.

Central banks’ cautious shift toward easing has buoyed bonds and credit globally, even as pockets of risk linger. U.S. and European yields dipped on policy signals, credit spreads stayed near cycle lows, and emerging debt outperformed amid renewed inflows.

Meanwhile, the Fed stays put at 4.25–4.5%, still pencilling in two rate cuts by year-end. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week narrowly mixed, fluctuating throughout the week amid a slew of headlines regarding escalating tensions in the Middle East. Smaller-cap indexes performed best for the week, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which posted modest gains. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept the funds rate unchanged. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections showed that policymakers expect to make two interest rate cuts through the remainder of the year, unchanged from their previous projection; however, expectations for inflation and unemployment by the end of 2025 both rose, while projections for GDP growth declined. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller made comments suggesting the central bank could be in a position to cut rates as soon as July.

Flash note

As anticipated by both our CIO Research team and the broader market, the Federal Reserve maintained its key rate steady at 4.25-4.5%.

As weakening core inflation clashes with a sudden 13% surge in oil due to Middle East tensions, central banks find themselves at a difficult crossroads—caught between easing hopes and renewed inflation pressure.