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Rate markets were shaken this week by rising concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and renewed tariff threats, prompting a sharp adjustment in Fed rate cut expectations and putting long-end yields and credit under renewed pressure.
Meanwhile, credit markets are expecting the US credit rating to be cut by six levels, and we see the world’s most expensive Papa John’s pizzas. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.
US stocks pulled back this week as investors have been digesting a Moody's downgrade of US debt, the House's passage of a budget bill that could further increase the Federal deficit, a slew of retailer earnings that suggest that the US consumer has been so-far undaunted by tariff uncertainties, and Friday's social media post from President Trump indicating that the EU could be hit with a much higher import tariff rate as soon as the end of next week if trade negotiations fail US small- and mid-cap indexes fared worst, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones both fell back into negative territory for the year after ending the prior week slightly positive.
Long-end yields rose across developed markets, led by Japan’s 30-year breakout to a 25-year high, while cautious central bank messaging and supportive credit dynamics helped sustain risk appetite across fixed income.
Meanwhile, everyone’s in on gold—it's the most crowded trade by a mile. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.
U.S. equities posted strong gains for the week, with positive sentiment largely driven by news that the U.S. and China had agreed to a substantial de-escalation of trade tensions following talks in Switzerland over the weekend. The Nasdaq Composite led the way for major indexes, advancing 7.2%, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones gained 5.3% and 3.4%, respectively. On the US macro side, consumer price inflation in April was lower than expected. Retail sales growth decelerated in April while consumer sentiment continued to slide. In the EU, industrial production jumped in March, suggesting that the sector is emerging from a two-year recession.
Global fixed income markets found stability last week amid easing U.S.–China trade tensions, while Japan's 30-year government bond yield surged to a 25-year high, reflecting shifting investor sentiment and inflation expectations.
The Fed holds the line on rate cuts, while US investors and companies are buying back stocks like never before. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.
Major indexes finished the week narrowly mixed. Small- and mid-cap indexes led the way, posting gains for the fifth consecutive week, while the Dow fell modestly. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite were down roughly 50bp for the week as investors continue to digest the White House's on again/off again trade policy, ongoing developments in AI technology, the Fed, and a long tail of 1Q earnings. However, we note that exactly one month after the White House's surprising decision to pause its week-old reciprocal tariffs, the S&P 500 now sits 835 points higher (+17%) than it was at its recent low seen back on April 7th. Stocks fell in the early part of the week but recovered some losses on Wednesday following reports that U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in Switzerland this weekend for trade discussions.
94-year-old Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, with Greg Abel, a long-time executive at the company, set to take over.
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