U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week narrowly mixed, fluctuating throughout the week amid a slew of headlines regarding escalating tensions in the Middle East. Smaller-cap indexes performed best for the week, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which posted modest gains. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept the funds rate unchanged. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections showed that policymakers expect to make two interest rate cuts through the remainder of the year, unchanged from their previous projection; however, expectations for inflation and unemployment by the end of 2025 both rose, while projections for GDP growth declined. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller made comments suggesting the central bank could be in a position to cut rates as soon as July.

Flash note

As anticipated by both our CIO Research team and the broader market, the Federal Reserve maintained its key rate steady at 4.25-4.5%.

As weakening core inflation clashes with a sudden 13% surge in oil due to Middle East tensions, central banks find themselves at a difficult crossroads—caught between easing hopes and renewed inflation pressure.

Meanwhile, we look into the proposed budget proposal of President Trump and a nuclear tech company with soaring stocks. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

U.S. stocks declined during the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 1.32% and dropping back into negative territory for the year. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite fell to a lesser extent and remained positive year-to-date. Major indexes were broadly higher through Thursday, buoyed by some better-than-expected economic data releases as well as reports that trade talks between the U.S. and China had led to a preliminary agreement to ease recent trade tensions. However, sentiment quickly turned negative on Friday morning on news that Israel had launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders, with a pledge of more attacks to come, to which Iran reportedly responded with a retaliatory attack later on Friday.

Flash note

Robust U.S. job data drove global bond yields higher and curtailed market hopes for near-term rate cuts, yet credit spreads tightened as investors embraced risk, enabling most fixed income sectors to notch gains despite central banks’ cautious stance.

Plus, gold leaves its commodity counterparts behind as President Trump and Elon Musk feud. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Main U.S. equities indices closed higher for the 2nd week in a row. The Russell 2000 Index outperformed (up +3.2%), while the Nasdaq (+2.2%) and the Dow (+1.2%) both advanced to join the S&P 500 Index in positive territory for the year. At the sector level, Tech outperformed, due in part to upbeat sentiment around AI-related stocks. Tesla was a notable underperformer on the back of Trump-Musk breakdown. On the trade side, tensions between the U.S. and China continued to re-escalate and then eased on Thursday, as Trump and Xi Jinping held a phone call that “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries,” according to a social media post from Trump. The highlight of the week’s economic calendar arguably came from Friday’s closely watched US nonfarm payrolls report, which seemed to indicate the labor market is cooling but at a slower pace than many were anticipating. This helped offset the “Musk-Trump tantrum”.