In this week's report, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of the US yield curve. A comforting US Producer Price Index (PPI) countering a slight rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has pushed the US 2-year yield to its lowest since May 2023, while long-term interest rates demonstrate stability.

Stocks moved higher over the week. The Nasdaq Composite index surged over 3% on the week (best one since early Nov '23) while The Dow and Small Caps were unchanged (S&P closed up almost 2% on the week). Several tech giants recorded solid gains, including Facebook / Meta Platforms and chipmaker NVIDIA. Energy stocks underperformed as oil prices pulled back early in the week. US our largest banks—JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo—reported fourth-quarter results on Friday. Data releases on the week’s light economic calendar came in roughly in line with expectations. US Headline core CPI rose 0.3% in December, a tick more than expected, but core CPI also rose 0.3%, in line with consensus.

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea result in surge of maritime freight prices, the amount of US debt is now greater than the value of the economies of China, Germany, Japan, India and the UK combined and the BRICS welcome 5 new members! Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Stocks gave back a portion of the past several weeks’ solid gains as investors appeared to rotate into sectors that lagged in 2023, including utilities, energy, consumer staples, and health care. Conversely, a slide in Apple shares following analysts downgrade weighed on the Nasdaq Composite Index. Trading volumes were relatively muted over much of the holiday-shortened week. Geopolitical concerns (Chinese president Xi speech on Taiwan, Red Sea tensions) appeared to weigh on sentiment as 2024 trading began. Macro data offered mixed evidence about the economy’s momentum heading into the new year. US labor market data generally surprised on the upside, although underlying trends were more mixed.

2024's first week veered from 2023's end-of-year bond rally to a sharp sell-off, as widening spreads and rising rates introduced a sobering start. This correction, following the potent rally since mid-October, alongside primary market activities pressuring spreads and rates, underscores the inherent volatility in fixed income markets and sets a cautious tone for January.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a barometer for the global fixed income market, has recorded its largest two-month gain ever, marking a significant turnaround. This rally concludes a challenging period, bringing a much-needed positive annual performance close to +6% after two consecutive years of declines.

Global bond and stock markets added almost $20 trillion in capitalization during 2023 and all of that gain came in the last two months of the year. For the last week of 2023, the major equity indices were mixed. The S&P 500 Index marked its ninth straight weekly gain—its longest stretch since 2004—and briefly moved within 0.5% of its all-time intraday high. The week closed out a strong year for all the major indexes, led by the Nasdaq Composite, which recorded its sixth-biggest annual gain since the index was launched in 1971. As was widely expected, trading volumes and market moves were muted through most of the week, with trading closed Monday and many investors out of the office.

Stocks continued their weekly winning streak—the longest since 2017. The S&P 500 Index briefly moved within 84 basis points of its all-time intraday high while the Nasdaq 100 Index and Dow Jones managed new records. Note that the Russell 2000 has gained 24% over the last 36 trading days, one of the biggest small cap rallies in history. Not all stocks gained; FEDEX stock is down -11% on the week as Q2 profits missed expectations. Nike is down -11% after missing sales estimates and cutting outlook. The global disinflation trend is gaining steam as inflation cools down more than expected in the U.S., UK, and Japan. In the US, the headline PCE index fell 0.1% in November, marking its first decline in 21 months, thanks to a sharp decline in goods prices.

The journey through 2023 was an unexpected odyssey for fixed income markets, marked by challenges but ultimately culminating in positive performance after two negative years. Despite unchanged U.S. rates throughout the year, carry emerged as the pivotal component driving returns in rate strategies.

The Resilience of the US economy, a global disinflation trend, China disillusion, the come-back of cryptos, the AI boom and the magnificent 7 while commodities ended in the year in the red. Here are ten stories to remember from an eventful 2023.