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Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

A softening US labor market and a slowdown in European activity, combined with improving inflation, may pave the way for the Fed and ECB to hit the pause button on their hiking cycles.

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01/09/2023

The Jackson Hole symposium offered no real new Fed policy insights, AI's ascent propels Nvidia's results and the BRICs welcome 6 new members next January. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

The main US equity indices were mixed with the #Nasdaq outperforming (along with the S&P 500) while The Dow ended lower on the week. Growth #stocks handily outperformed value shares, helped by another substantial #earnings and revenue beat by artificial intelligence chipmaker #NVIDIA. Financials pulled back early in the week after S&P Global downgraded its credit ratings of five regional banks. Several retailers reported 2Q results, which arguably offered a generally cautious picture on the health of the U.S. consumer. On the macro side, disappointing data dominated the week with the Citi macro surprise index tumbling most since April.

Amidst the recent bond sell-off and with interest rates now entering a more restrictive territory for the US economy, the prospect emerges that Powell could be handed a respite, allowing him time to observe the effects of the current Fed monetary policy on the economy.

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25/08/2023

The property sector crisis exacerbates China's economic woes, the equity and bond markets remain under pressure and the Russian rouble approaches its lowest level for 17 months versus the US dollar. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

US stocks retreated for a third consecutive week as sentiment appeared to take a blow from a sharp increase in longer-term bond yields and fears of a sharp slowdown in China. The S&P 500 index ended the week down 5.2% from its July 26 intraday peak. Small-cap stocks performed the worst. On the macro side, July US retail sales jumped 0.7% over the month, roughly double consensus estimates. Sales in specific categories indicated a sharp rise in discretionary spending (e,g +11.9% yoy for restaurants and bars).

As new yield records were set this week, the resulting selloff in US Treasuries is triggering a widening of spreads.

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18/08/2023

Last week, headline CPI figures revealed inflation had increased slightly in the US, US equity indices ended the week on a low note and Russia continues to successfully export fossil fuels. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

It’s been a challenging summer for the Chinese real estate market, as the difficulties faced by Chinese developers continue to cast a shadow over the industry.

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14/08/2023

US equity indices ended mixed for the week, as investors weighed inflation data against worries over the recent rise in long-term interest rates. Volumes were generally light. Value stocks handily outperformed growth stocks; the Dow managed a modest gain while the Nasdaq was down (-2%) for the 2nd straight week (1st time since December.). Healthcare outperformed while technology stocks underperformed on worries that rising rates would reduce the value of future profits.

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