Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

Flash note

|

31/10/2024

Here's a summary of the Federal Reserve’s decision: 1. Interest rates cut by 50 bps for first time since 2020 2. Rate cuts 2 more 25 basis point in 2024 3. Fed governor Miki Bowman dissented in favour of a smaller 25 bps cut. It's the first dissent by a "governor" since 2005 4. Gained "greater confidence" that inflation is moving to 2% 5. Have an evolving outlook as "carefully assess incoming data" 6. Rate cuts of 100 bps in 2025 and 50 bps of cuts in 2026

|

19/09/2024

The US labour market is cooling down, and today’s Employment report brought another confirmation of this trend. Job creations in the private sector have settled below 200k per month throughout Q2 and declined to 136k in June. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, its highest level of this expansion cycle. Only government jobs continued a solid upward trend, which may not be surprising in an electoral year. The normalisation of the US labour market is one of the five key trends to watch for the next 6 months (cf. Syz H2 2024 Market Outlook: Normalisation ahead). Today’s US Employment Report fits into this dynamic, which is at the heart of our expectations for economic growth normalisation, softer inflationary pressures and central bank rate cuts.

|

05/07/2024

The SNB has lowered its key rate again today, to 1.25%, after the previous 25bp cut decided in March. This decision appears grounded in a combination of three factors: inflation is on a stable and moderate trajectory, economic growth remains soft and excessive upward pressures on the CHF may arise during the summer.. With this decision, the SNB has likely completed its monetary policy recalibration and is unlikely to cut rates further this year.. Should European or global developments trigger volatility and upward pressures on the CHF, the SNB will probably resort to interventions on the FX market to manage the impact on the economy, rather than use the interest rate lever.

|

20/06/2024

Executive Summary: The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on June 20th with expectations set for maintaining the current Bank Rate amid recent economic and inflationary developments. Despite a strong initial performance in June, the UK government bonds have stagnated since the last BOE meeting. • Watch This: The focus is on the number of MPC members supporting a rate cut (currently 2 out of 9) and any forward guidance regarding future rate adjustments. • Market Strategy: Preference for the short end over the back end of the UK government yield curve continues, as GBP strengthens amidst differing economic dynamics between the US and UK.

|

19/06/2024

The past couple of weeks have brought useful insights about the US economy. And although pockets of weakness, risks and uncertainties remain, while the Presidential election looms, the general situation today appears to be quite good for the world’s largest economy. Business activity remains clearly positive, inflation has resumed a slowing trend after a short-lived unexpected pickup, and the Fed has clear room for easing its monetary policy if needed but has no need to rush neither. The scenario of a smooth, soft landing, where inflation would gently converge toward the Fed target, growth would gently converge toward its long-term potential, and the Fed would eventually gently loosen its monetary policy toward a neutral stance, no longer appears to be a pipe dream.

|

14/06/2024

• Political and fiscal uncertainty: the Rassemblement National's (RN) gains in the European elections introduce political and fiscal uncertainty into France's fixed income market. Key risks include potential policy shifts towards increased public spending, undermined investor confidence, and heightened market volatility. • Market reactions: immediate market reactions have already seen selloffs in bonds, with increased yields on French government bonds (OATs) and a steepened yield curve. Foreign investors are particularly concerned about capital outflows and the broader economic implications within the Eurozone. • Credit rating downgrade: the recent S&P downgrade highlights the need for careful monitoring of France's credit rating and its impacts on the fixed income market. • Future risks: if the RN performs similarly in the upcoming legislative elections, the risk to France's bonds could intensify, driven by potential shifts in fiscal policy and sustained political uncertainty

|

11/06/2024

1 2 3 4 5

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks