Slow food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

So said a former U.S. Treasury Secretary in 1971 to other finance ministers struggling with the soaring dollar. 50 years later, the strength of the greenback is again threatening many financial balances around the world.

Rate hikes abound across the world, following in the Fed’s footsteps. Volatility is peaking, tech stocks aren’t out of the woods and the US administration’s shrinking oil reserves are pushing the black gold’s prices ever higher. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Despite the sanctions, the ruble is at its highest level in 2 years against the euro. What are the reasons behind this rebound? Will the Russian currency hold as Russia has become a financial "pariah"?

Rising oil prices, booming tourism, Expo 2020’s success, structural reforms: lately, everything seems to be going in the right direction for the United Arab Emirates. A favorable situation that is also benefiting the local equity markets.

The current context of record high inflation with the risk of a sharp economic slowdown is exceptional. Will the Fed be able to engineer a “soft landing”?

The succession of two major crises (the Covid-19 pandemic and then Russia's war against Ukraine) could lead to major and lasting changes to the world order. In today’s Focus, we review 10 potential macroeconomic and financial trends which could shape the next decade.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has put an end to its QE “4” (Quantitative Easing) and is even considering reducing the size of its balance sheet. A perilous exercise. Quantitative Easing is coming to an end in the US. But can the Fed afford to move into Quantitative Tightening? In today’s focus, we take a look at the effects of the decade long experiment that was QE, and what comes next.

The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West in retaliation to the invasion of Ukraine could prompt central banks to rethink their foreign- currency reserve policy. Today’s Focus looks at how the world may adapt after the sudden realization that their heavily dollar-dependent reserves can be confiscated overnight.

The war between Russia and Ukraine will soon enter a third week. In our latest Focus, we consider four scenarios to examine the potential implications for the global economy and financial markets. These scenarios have different geopolitical narratives. In the first scenario (medium to high probability), a Russian military victory leads to an unstable Ukraine and to Cold War II. The second scenario (medium to high probability) involves a negotiated deal between Russia and Ukraine. The third scenario (medium to low probability) is the scariest one: a Russia- NATO armed conflict including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The fourth scenario (a coup against Putin) has the lowest probability to take place but still has merit. Below we detail the consequences of each scenario on growth, inflation, monetary policy as well as on the performance of the main asset classes.

China and Russia aim to weaken the US hegemony and the reign of the greenback. The tragic invasion of Ukraine could be seen as one step in a long-term process. In our latest Focus, we reflect on the profound changes at play, and the pressures the long-standing US supremacy is under. Its dollar is being questioned as an absolute reference for global trade, and flexing its military muscles seems to be less intimidating than it once was. In a world vastly different than the petrodollar world economy Richard Nixon helped shape, Chinese President Xi will play a key role in the new global balance of power.

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