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Intensified fears over rising interest rates pushed the S&P 500 Index lower for a 2nd consecutive week and to levels last seen in early November. Nearly every sector within the index recorded sharp losses with the exception of energy shares, which were supported by a rebound in oil prices. A roughly USD 4 trillion expiration in options contracts on Friday sparked additional volatility.
Stocks gave back much of the previous two weeks’ gains, as some surprisingly strong economic data (ISM services, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, PPI) dampened hopes that the Fed might soon be able to curb its program of raising interest rates to cool inflation. The S&P 500 Index recorded its worst return in five weeks and was unable to stay above its 200-day moving average following the recent rally.
The major U.S. equity benchmarks ended higher with growth stocks outperforming their value counterparts. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index did enter bull market territory on the final day of November, when it closed more than 20% above the low it hit in September 2022. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling smaller interest rate hikes going forward drove U.S. Treasury yields lower this week.
The major US equities indices recorded gains during the week, with the S&P 500 Index finishing above the 4,000 level for the first time in two months. Favorable earnings reports in the retail and technology sectors as well as indications that the Fed is open to slowing its pace of rate hikes helped fuel the rally.
US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s strong gains and closed modestly lower for the week. Growth stocks lagged value-oriented shares. The energy sector underperformed, however, as European oil and natural gas inventories reached near-peak levels. Dispelled reports of a Russian missile strike on Polish territory sparked a brief sell-off on Tuesday, but trading volumes remained muted for much of the week.
US equities recorded strong gains and bond yields fell as investors celebrated reassuring inflation data. The S&P 500 recorded its best week since June and hit its best intraday level in two months. Growth stocks — tech in particular— benefited the most from falling yields.
Stocks fell after the Fed dashed market hopes for an impending pivot in monetary policy in the form of a pause or slower pace of rate hikes. Nasdaq was the biggest loser (-5.6%) while the Dow outperformed (-1.4%). This was the Nasdaq's worst week since January.
CHART OF THE WEEK: APPLE HITS A NEW HIGH vs. NASDAQ 100 The only tech behemoth to emerge relatively unscathed from this week is Apple which, despite reporting slower than expected iPhone 14 sales, otherwise held up very well comparatively. Apple stock finished up 7.6% on Friday, its best day since 2020. The stock hits an all-time-high relative to the Nasdaq 100 index.
Markets rebound can be self-fulfilling. There are too many shorts who are now panic-buying call options on the S&P 500 to hedge themselves. As such, S&P 500 volatility skew is at extreme levels (i.e calls buying is extreme vs. puts buying).
Stocks were down for a 3rd week in a row on the back of turmoil in UK financial markets and signs that the Fed still has much more to tighten.
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