Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

US equities posted solid gains in a relatively quiet week for economic data releases and financial news. Small-caps outperformed large-caps, and value stocks advanced modestly more than growth stocks. Rising oil prices boosted energy stocks. U.S. WTI crude oil rose more than 9% for the week, climbing back above the USD 70 per barrel level. Over the quarter, the Nasdaq Composite index jumped more than 16%, while the S&P 500 Index rose approximately 7%.

US equity returns varied widely over the week as banking industry and recession worries weighed on value stocks and small-caps, while large-cap growth stocks benefited from falling interest rates. Financials underperformed for a third consecutive week while the average stock remained significantly weaker than the S&P 500 Index’s return suggests.

US stocks closed mixed for the week, reflecting the crosscurrents of stresses in the banking sector, worries that a steeper slowdown in the economy would follow, and hopes that the Fed would now be forced to pause its rate-hiking cycle. Sector returns within the S&P 500 Index varied widely: mega-cap tech stocks recorded strong gains while financials and energy shares suffered significant losses.

Stocks pulled back sharply over the week, as investors absorbed more hawkish talks from Jerome Powell and signs that the Fed still had work to do in cooling inflation. The S&P 500 Index fell on Friday to its lowest intraday level since January 5 as the selling accelerated after the index broke both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Financials led the declines and contributed to the pronounced weakness in value stocks.

Main US equity benchmarks closed the week higher and regained some ground following their worst weekly decline in two months. Energy and materials shares outperformed. Economic reports were mixed. US durable goods orders posted their steepest decline since April 2020. The ISM Manufacturing PMI ticked higher in February for the 1st time since May (although it remained in contraction territory at 47.7) while services PMI fell slightly but less than consensus expectations and still indicated moderate expansion (55.1).

Several upside inflation and growth surprises in the US pushed the S&P 500 Index to its worst weekly loss since early December. At its close on Friday, the index had surrendered roughly 35% of the rally that began in October, but it remained up 3.4% year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now in negative territory for the year, however. Growth stocks fell only modestly more than value shares.

US equities ended mixed as investors weighed some healthy growth and profit signals against worries that inflation trends might surprise on the upside. Fears that the Fed would need to raise short-term interest rates more than previously expected caused US Treasury yields to increase and fostered a rise in the U.S. dollar, taking an especially large toll on oil prices and energy stocks. US CPI rose 0.5% in January, as expected, versus a revised 0.1% increase in December.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1% and 2.4%, respectively, in what was their worst week since December. Energy stocks were the notable upside outlier and communication services shares the prominent laggard. Shares of Google parent Alphabet lost roughly USD 100 billion in market capitalization on Wednesday and fell roughly 10% for the week after Reuters reported that Google’s new artificial intelligence (AI)-based chatbot, Bard, mistakenly identified the first satellite to take a picture of an exoplanet in its first public demonstration on Monday.

Most of the US equity indexes extended their winning streaks into February, helped by some upside surprises in economic data and Q4 earnings reports, as well as some dovish signals from the Fed. The S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 4,195 on Thursday, its best level since late August. A 23% jump on Thursday in Meta Platforms (Q4 beat + positive outlook) provided a major boost to the Nasdaq.

Stocks resumed their winning streak on the back of some signals that the economy might avoid a recession in 2023. Consumer discretionary stocks were especially strong, thanks partly to a big jump in Tesla shares over the week following a favorable outlook. Defensive sectors (consumer staples, health care, and utilities) lagged. Value stocks underperformed growth shares.

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks