US stocks retreated for a third consecutive week as sentiment appeared to take a blow from a sharp increase in longer-term bond yields and fears of a sharp slowdown in China. The S&P 500 index ended the week down 5.2% from its July 26 intraday peak. Small-cap stocks performed the worst. On the macro side, July US retail sales jumped 0.7% over the month, roughly double consensus estimates. Sales in specific categories indicated a sharp rise in discretionary spending (e,g +11.9% yoy for restaurants and bars).

US equity indices ended mixed for the week, as investors weighed inflation data against worries over the recent rise in long-term interest rates. Volumes were generally light. Value stocks handily outperformed growth stocks; the Dow managed a modest gain while the Nasdaq was down (-2%) for the 2nd straight week (1st time since December.). Healthcare outperformed while technology stocks underperformed on worries that rising rates would reduce the value of future profits.

U.S. equities started August with a down week after closing out a strong July. Rising Treasury yields and an unexpected downgrade to the U.S. government’s credit rating weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq suffered the largest losses for the week. On the corporate earnings side, Amazon significantly beat estimates and the stock rallied more than 8% on Friday. Apple was down about 5% after a mixed report as iPhone sales disappointed. Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded the credit rating of U.S. government debt from AAA, to AA+, with the ratings agency saying its decision “reflects governance and medium-term fiscal challenges.”

Main US equities indices ended higher over a week notable for the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its 13th consecutive daily gain on Wednesday, which marked its longest winning streak since 1987. Trading activity was relatively subdued due to the summer vacation season. It was nevertheless a busy week in terms of news flow. The Fed announced a 0.25% increase in the federal funds target rate, as expected. The tone of the Fed’s statement was received as relatively benign, however, and expectations grew that the Fed was done raising rates, at least for the year.

The Dow Jones is up 10 days in a row U.S. equity indexes advanced on hopes that the tight labor market and moderating inflation would help the economy avoid a hard landing. The Dow Jones is up 10 days in a row, which is the longest winning streak since February 2017. The Nasdaq, however, suffered a modest pullback on the week on the back of Tesla and Netflix earnings. Value stocks outperformed their growth counterparts.

Stocks, Bonds & Gold soar as inflation cools down. US stocks recorded strong weekly gains as investors welcomed data showing a continued cooldown in inflation. The S&P 500 Index ended the week 6.5% below the all-time intraday high it established in early 2022. The Nasdaq Composite recorded an even stronger gain but remained 12.9% below its record peak. Both US headline and core inflation rose 0.2% in June, a tick below expectations.

Strong US labor market keeps the Fed on high alert After a strong first half in 2023, equity markets retreated as we entered the first week of the third quarter. The S&P 500 was down -1.2% last week, while small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap equities. Growth stocks held up modestly better than value shares. The key driver for this market disruption was stronger-than-expected labor market and services data, as well as Wednesday’s release of (hawkish) minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting.

CHART OF THE WEEK: WILL “SOFT MACRO DATA” CLOSE THE GAP?

The major US equity benchmarks closed lower in a holiday-shortened trading week. The Nasdaq suffered its first weekly decline in two months, while the S&P 500 Index recorded its first drop in six weeks. Growth stocks outperformed value shares, while large-caps fared better than small-caps. Signs that further Federal Reserve rate hikes lay ahead seemed to weigh on sentiment for much of the week.

US main equity index continues a rally that began with only a few interruptions in late May. The S&P 500 Index notched its longest stretch of daily gains since November 2021 and its best weekly performance since the end of March. Indeed, several signs emerged that the economy is enjoying a “Goldilocks” expansion of continued growth alongside falling inflation.