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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## **Slow food** for thought Insights and research on global events shaping the markets - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) - [Asset Allocation Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [US Elections 2024](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/us-elections-2024) As we approach the US Presidential election, the race remains highly uncertain, with both candidates neck and neck in the polls. The upcoming debates, along with recent events like Joe Biden's health issues and an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, have added to the unpredictability of this election, which could significantly impact the US economy and financial markets. Let's explore the key issues at stake and how the election outcome may affect equity and bond investments. **[Adrien Pichoud](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/adrien-pichoud)** | 09/09/2024 [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [Can the Javier Milei ‘method’ save Argentina?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/can-the-javier-milei-method-save-argentina) Argentina's economy has fluctuated between prosperity and crisis, with recent austerity under President Milei reducing inflation but worsening poverty and increasing reliance on foreign investment, leaving the country vulnerable. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau)** | 03/09/2024 [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/investing) #### [The Fed’s pivot is just around the corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/the-feds-pivot-is-just-around-the-corner) We expect the Fed rate cut cycle to start soon and proceed gradually. Barring a financial crisis or a sharp and unexpected change in the path of inflation or unemployment, the upcoming rate-cutting cycle won’t be dramatic; we expect the Fed to make incremental, 25 bps cuts to its policy rate. Moreover, the Fed is going to stay highly data dependent and will calibrate accordingly. Overall, this is a rather positive scenario for risk assets. Still, equity market valuations are becoming rich, especially in developed markets. Consequently, we keep our neutral stance on equities. We are upgrading all currencies (EUR, CHF, CHF, JPY, EM currencies) back to neutral vs USD (from Negative). Technicals have turned against the US dollar and the Fed has sent a clear signal about coming rate cuts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau)** | 02/09/2024 [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [Europe's economic miracle lies in the east](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/europes-economic-miracle-lies-in-the-east) Eastern Europe's post-communist lag has shifted to rapid growth, showcasing the impact of EU integration. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau)** | 29/08/2024 [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [The Macro Month Ahead: September 2024](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/the-macro-month-ahead-september-2024) The Fed joins the global rate cut cycle. **[Adrien Pichoud](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/adrien-pichoud)** | 29/08/2024 [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [Hoka and On AG: Outrunning the Giants](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/hoka-and-on-ag-outrunning-the-giants) In the athletic footwear industry, established brands have long dominated, but newer players are quietly gaining attention from athletes and casual consumers alike. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau)** | 22/08/2024 [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [Market Update: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/market-update-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly) As we head into Jackson Hole's symposium by the end of the week, what's next for stocks? Below, we look at the good, the bad and the ugly sides of the current fundamental and technical backdrop. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau)** | 20/08/2024 [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [5 investment books for the Summer](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/5-investment-books-for-the-summer) \- **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau)** | 15/08/2024 [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/investing) #### [The unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade: a healthy correction or something bigger?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/volatility-and-rotation-ahead-0) We believe that the current market correction is driven by technical factors rather than macro and fundamentals. The unwinding of the yen carry trade was an accident waiting to happen (see our June 2022 FOCUS note “Has Japan’s central bank created a monster?”). The heavy net long positioning by CTAs, the traditional low liquidity of August and the high valuation ratios of some crowded trades (e.g Mag 7) created the perfect “summer cocktail” for pullbacks of major global equity indices and a spectacular spike of the VIX. As explained in our FAQ, there is no reason to panic as macro and fundamental conditions remain favourable to equity markets. Still, history shows that stock markets remain bumpy in the 4 to 6 weeks which follow a spike in the VIX. As such, we’re keeping the current equity allocation unchanged (neutral vs. SAA) and adding some long duration bonds to portfolios as a diversifier. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau)** | 08/08/2024 [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/focus) #### [The Macro Month Ahead: August 2024](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/the-macro-month-ahead-august-2024) No summer break for US politic and central bankers **[Adrien Pichoud](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/adrien-pichoud)** | 05/08/2024 [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/page/19) [18](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/page/18) [19](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/page/19) [20](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/page/20) [21](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/page/21) [22](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/page/22) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/page/21) ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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