Slow food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

Rate hikes abound across the world, following in the Fed’s footsteps. Volatility is peaking, tech stocks aren’t out of the woods and the US administration’s shrinking oil reserves are pushing the black gold’s prices ever higher. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Despite the sanctions, the ruble is at its highest level in 2 years against the euro. What are the reasons behind this rebound? Will the Russian currency hold as Russia has become a financial "pariah"?

Rising oil prices, booming tourism, Expo 2020’s success, structural reforms: lately, everything seems to be going in the right direction for the United Arab Emirates. A favorable situation that is also benefiting the local equity markets.

The current context of record high inflation with the risk of a sharp economic slowdown is exceptional. Will the Fed be able to engineer a “soft landing”?

Our leading indicators (macro & fundamental) continue to point towards challenges for equity markets. From a technical standpoint, the long-term equity bull market trend is being challenged while market breadth is not showing much signs of improvement. In Fixed Income, we remain cautious on rates and keep a disinclination stance on credit spreads. In Forex, we keep a disinclination stance on the EUR. Our “core” scenario for 2022 is adjusted towards weaker growth and higher inflation. Our leading indicators (macro & fundamental) continue to point towards challenges for equity markets. From a technical standpoint, the long-term equity bull market trend is being challenged while market breadth is not showing much signs of improvement. In Fixed Income, we remain cautious on rates and keep a disinclination stance on credit spreads. In Forex, we keep a disinclination stance on the EUR. Our “core” scenario for 2022 is adjusted towards weaker growth and higher inflation.

After an exceptional 2021, the first quarter of 2022 has been an emotional and difficult one for investors. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, surging inflation and the start of the Fed rate hike cycle weighed on both equities and bonds performance while commodities thrived. Here are 10 stories to remember from an eventful quarter.

The succession of two major crises (the Covid-19 pandemic and then Russia's war against Ukraine) could lead to major and lasting changes to the world order. In today’s Focus, we review 10 potential macroeconomic and financial trends which could shape the next decade.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has put an end to its QE “4” (Quantitative Easing) and is even considering reducing the size of its balance sheet. A perilous exercise. Quantitative Easing is coming to an end in the US. But can the Fed afford to move into Quantitative Tightening? In today’s focus, we take a look at the effects of the decade long experiment that was QE, and what comes next.

We have been gradually reducing our exposure to equities and credit over the last few months based not only on fundamental & technical indicators but also on systematic risk balancing. As a further step in this de-risking process, we are downgrading our equity view by another notch, from cautious to disinclination. We believe that a clear reduction in exposure to European markets is warranted in a context of huge uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine. We chose to sit on the sideline and wait for more visibility, on the geopolitical, economic and corporate earnings outlook.

The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West in retaliation to the invasion of Ukraine could prompt central banks to rethink their foreign- currency reserve policy. Today’s Focus looks at how the world may adapt after the sudden realization that their heavily dollar-dependent reserves can be confiscated overnight.

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