Slow food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

Key takeaways: • While market dynamics remain supportive, the macro & fundamental context are still uncertain and could lead to an Equity Risk Premium re-rating • We keep our cautious stance on equities and rates as well as our positive view on credit • We are downgrading China & EM Asia equities to positive (from attractive). We are upgrading Government bonds to positive (from cautious)

The European Long-Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) format allows access to private asset investments without having to invest large sums or be an institutional investor.

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While some respite was expected as we entered 2023, the start of the year was far from a relaxing one. After a hawkish start to the quarter, volatility especially in bonds, surged during March, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. That led to fears about broader contagion across the banking system, that were bolstered by the sudden implosion of Credit Suisse and its acquisition by UBS, backed by guarantees from the Swiss government.

The battle between the “bulls” and the “bears” is still raging and the winner has not yet been determined. While the technical background for equity markets has been improving recently, we decided last week to keep our cautious stance on equities. Indeed, our view remains that the aftershock of the Fed's policy tightening is starting to be felt in the financial system and the wider economy. We believe that the macro-economic context is starting to deteriorate and that we have entered yet another period of uncertainty which should lead to an Equity Risk Premium re-rating.

Q1 2023 was turbulent period for the market, a hawkish start of the quarter ended in solid gains for equity markets, while the global banking industry was nearly brought to its knees. Here are 10 stories to remember from Q1 2023.

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Last week we decided downgrade equities from positive to cautious. Indeed, our view is that the aftershock of the Fed's policy tightening is starting to be felt in the financial system and the wider economy. We believe that we have entered yet another period of uncertainty which should lead to an Equity Risk Premium re-rating. This week, we are further de-risking portfolios by downgrading credit from attractive to positive.

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