Key takeaways: • After a strong first half of the year, the market’s mood has shifted in August with both US and International equities taking what still looks like a healthy pause. China’s growth issues and the rise of bond yields in the US have been the main triggers for profit taking. • We remain neutral on equities, rates and credit. We are turning negative on EUR and CHF against USD. We are downgrading China & EM Asia equities to neutral and are upgrading US equities to positive. • We continue to favour 3 main investment strategies: 1) Diversify into the lagging segments of the equity market that carry lower valuations; 2) Use volatility to our own advantage by buying on pullbacks; and 3) Use the bear steepening of the curve to extend duration within fixed-income portfolios.

Key takeaways: • Developed economies continue to surprise positively. Inflation is cooling down and a soft landing now looks like a plausible outcome. This has led to a new acronym (courtesy of Goldman): the “Recession In Name Only” (R.I.N.O) • Our current positioning is neutral on equities, rates and credit. We remain negative on the dollar and positive on gold. • After a strong first half of the year, we see opportunities to: 1. Use volatility to our advantage (add to risk assets during market pullbacks); 2. Diversify into the lagging segments of the equity market that carry lower valuations and; 3. Extend duration within fixed-income portfolios

Key takeaways: • While market dynamics remain supportive, the macro & fundamental context are still uncertain and could lead to an Equity Risk Premium re-rating • We keep our cautious stance on equities and rates as well as our positive view on credit • We are downgrading China & EM Asia equities to positive (from attractive). We are upgrading Government bonds to positive (from cautious)

The battle between the “bulls” and the “bears” is still raging and the winner has not yet been determined. While the technical background for equity markets has been improving recently, we decided last week to keep our cautious stance on equities. Indeed, our view remains that the aftershock of the Fed's policy tightening is starting to be felt in the financial system and the wider economy. We believe that the macro-economic context is starting to deteriorate and that we have entered yet another period of uncertainty which should lead to an Equity Risk Premium re-rating.

Last week we decided downgrade equities from positive to cautious. Indeed, our view is that the aftershock of the Fed's policy tightening is starting to be felt in the financial system and the wider economy. We believe that we have entered yet another period of uncertainty which should lead to an Equity Risk Premium re-rating. This week, we are further de-risking portfolios by downgrading credit from attractive to positive.

DOWNGRADING EQUITIES TO CAUTIOUS As an old adage says, Monetary policy tightening is like dynamite fishing: when the blast hits, it decimates everything in the vicinity. The small fishes rise to the surface first. But it can take some time for the whale(s) to show up. With the unwind of a major bank (Silicon Valley Bank) last week and another (Signature Bank) over the weekend, it is clear that the aftershock of the Fed's policy tightening is starting to be felt. But should we see these two banks as whales or as just being those small fishes? At this stage, it is very difficult to answer to this question. However, we believe that we have entered a new period of uncertainty which should lead to an Equity Risk Premium re-rating. As such, we are downgrading equities from positive to cautious.

2022 was the worst year for global equity markets since 2008 while January was the best month for stocks since 1987. Investor sentiment has thus shifted and there are a few rationales for this.

2023 started with a mirror image of the trends that prevailed last year: the US dollar is weakening, bond yields are falling and stocks are rising. Are we witnessing a classical positive seasonal effect or is the improving sentiment a reflection of a macroeconomic and fundamental outlook improvement?

While inflation seems to have peaked in the US, central banks need to keep tightening for a while in order to bring it closer to their long-term target. This would probably imply a recession, with a negative impact on earnings growth.

While we believe that equity markets remain in a downtrend, the weight of the evidence leads us to upgrade our one-month tactical view on equities from “unattractive” to “cautious”. Our view on EM Asia equities moves from “cautious” to “positive”. We are also upgrading our stance on credit from “cautious” to “positive” (though favoring Investment Grade).