In a stunning move, reminiscent of the first few months of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, European NatGas prices exploded a stunning 40% higher YESTERDAY ALONE
This comes as the possibility of worker strikes at some LNG plants in Australia threatens global supply..... This is the biggest daily increase since March 2022. Citigroup estimates EU natural gas prices could double. Meanwhile, oil hit 9 months high and coal is rising as well. The surge of energy prices will make the job of central-bankers more difficult. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, ICE, Bloomberg
"Magnificent 7" stocks valuations are NOT cheap. Example: Apple
Apple's P/E Ratio: 30x 10-year average: 20x Apple's EV/EBITDA Ratio: 23x 10-year average: 14x Apple's Price to Sales Ratio: 7.5x 10-year average: 4.6x $AAPL Source: Charlie Bilello
The cost of both buying and renting a house in America has skyrocketed since 2020
Buying a house now costs $2,700/month on average, up an alarming ~86% in 3 years. Renting a house now costs $1,850/month on average, also up ~25% in 3 years. Owning a home has become a luxury. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Energy continues performing very well. The $XLE (energy stocks etf) is breaking above big levels, and the 50 day is crossing the 100 day...while the crowd gave up on energy longs at recent lows
Source: TME
On average, bubbles rise 217% during the 3 years leading up to the peak according to data from Morgan Stanley
Megacap Tech stocks are already up 200% year-to-date. Source: Barchart
What not to do is more important than what to do in the stock market What not to do?
🔷 Don't pay too much. 🔷 Don't go for businesses that are prone to obsolescence and destruction. 🔷 Don't invest with crooks and idiots. 🔷 Don't invest in things you don't understand Source: Investment Books (Dhaval)
Market cap of listed domestic companies as a % of GDP for selected countries
Switzerland is way ahead of peers in the ranking. US comes next Source: HolgerZ
The U.S. Now Has:
1. Record $17.1 trillion in household debt 2. Record $12.0 trillion in mortgages 3. Record $1.6 trillion in auto loans 4. Record $1.6 trillion in student loans 5. Record $1.0 trillion in credit card debt Total mortgage debt is now more than double the 2006 peak. Meanwhile, 36% of Americans have more credit card debt than savings while student loan payments are set to resume for the first time since 2020. This is all while mortgage rates just hit 7.1% and credit card debt rates hit a record 25%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Hedgeye
