Climbing the wall of worry: US equities sentiment remains bearish
According to Goldman's average percentile of 16 sentiment & positioning indicators, sentiment today is more bearish than it was 1 month ago and 3 months ago. Peculiar. Climb the wall of worry.
A big test ahead for the S&P 500
S&P 500's uptrend that started last fall continues even with the index losing 2.6% this month. But with the S&P 500 closing below the 50 day moving average and trapped in a range just above its 200 day moving average, this week will be critical. Source: Bloomberg
A 60/40 Portfolio remains 14% below its all-time high
A 60/40 Portfolio of US stocks/bonds is currently in a 14-month drawdown, 14% below its all-time high. This is the longest drawdown for a 60/40 portfolio since the financial crisis (37 months) and before that the aftermath of the dot-com bubble (43 months). Source: Charlie Bilello
Hedge funds net exposure is moving from Value to Growth sectors
(note that it is as of December 31st, 2022 so it is lagging the actual net exposure) Source: Goldman Sachs
S&P 500 profit margin in Q4 2021: 13.4% S&P 500 profit margin in Q4 2022: 10.9%
Source: Charlie Bilello
S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings are down 29% year-over-year
With 84% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings are down 29% year-over-year, the 3rd straight quarter of negative YoY growth and the largest decline since Q2 2020. Source: Charlie Bilello
Nearly half the options on S&P 500 stocks as well as on SPY and QQQ have maturities of less than 24 hours.
Source: The Daily Shot, Nomura
US equities: Bulls finally outnumbered Bears
Bulls finally outnumbered Bears in this week's AAII Sentiment Poll, ending a record streak of 44 consecutive weeks of bearish sentiment. We haven't seen more Bulls than Bears in this poll since March 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
