If the S&P500 is going to take a well-deserved break, this would be a perfectly logical time in the cycle for that to happen according to S&P 500 pre-election cycle
Source: J-C Parets
Paradigm shift -> A recent study by Fidelity & Binance shows that 81% of surveyed institutional investors are adding digital assets as part of their strategies...
Source: Michela Silvestr
The supply story in oil is getting worse
Source: MenthorQ
Why a "hawkish hold" by the Fed remains a high probability outcome.
The bar for the Fed to start cutting interest rates is high. It is also worthwhile to remember that Powell job remains a difficult one in light of what has been taking place since the start of the hiking rates cycle and more recently. Indeed, 1) the unemployment rate is exactly where it was when the Fed started hiking last March...(hot job market = wage pressure =higher inflation) - see UPPER CHART BELOW 2) Financial conditions are now far easier than where they were last September... 3) The S&P 500 is back where it was just as the Fed started hiking - see LOWER CHART 4) Meanwhile, commodity prices are starting to ramp up, which could add upward pressure on headline inflation. Bottom line: while markets expect rate cuts to soon follow due to cooling inflation, there is a very decent probability that the Fed might be forced holding tight. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Master Options Flow Model
Heavy call options buying activity is a testimony of the ongoing fomo / "chasing the rally" mood which has been going on for some time now Source: Macro charts
US credit delinquencies including housing have now risen above 2009 levels.
Source: Sven Henrich
BlackRock is the leading asset management firm with $9.1 trillion in AUM
Vanguard follows closely behind with $7.6 trillion in AUM. However, after Vanguard, there is a considerable drop-off in total AUM, with the next top asset management firms having relatively similar AUM figures. Source: Genuine Impact
The "X" war...
As highlighted by The Kobeissi letter, Meta currently owns the trademark for "X" in relation to "online social networking services." However, Microsoft owns the trademark "X" as it relates to online chat rooms and finance. Meanwhile, Twitter wants to make "X" into an everything social network with finance and banking. All while Twitter is suing Meta for copying Twitter... Source: Kobeissi letter