The median price of an existing home sold in the US is up 14% from the January low, now less than 1% below its all-time high from June 2022.
How could it be? Consider the #chart below courtesy of Charlie Bilello: The US Population is 19% higher than where it was in January 2000 while the inventory of Existing Homes for sale in the US is 37% lower. Economics 101 -> higher demand and lower supply drive prices higher.
Hungary still has an inflation rate of >20%, highest inflation rate in entire EU.
Inflation is driven by food prices (Food CPI +29% YoY) as Hungary has been hit by a drought and this has caused prices to rise. In addition, there is a shortage on the labor market, low labor productivity & very expansionary macroeconomic policies. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
There is always a bear market somewhere...
The meltdown in US commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth is staggering. Cumulative C&I lending is -1.0% since the start of 2023 (red). Median growth by this point in the year is +4.5% (black), while 2022 was up +9.3% by this point (blue). Big US investment slump is underway... Source: Robin Brooks
Food for thought
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Beware "no landing" is nothing new
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Remember the debt ceiling crisis?
Source: Charlie Bilello
Japanese stocks have an earnings yield that is 612bps above the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds
Put that in context; in the US, the gap is only 113bps. Little room for error in the US, plenty of room in Japan. This is a margin of safety concept. Source: Jeff Weniger
Investors are currently quite bearish on oil and commodities
The risk of higher energy and higher commodities prices in H2 doesn't seem to be priced by the market. Meanwhile, Crude Oil futures are pushing up against new 3-month highs. Could this be the big surprise of the second part of 2023? Source: All Star Charts
