Fed's deleveraging continues
Total assets have shrank another €19.5bn past week. Since start of QT, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk ONLY by $476bn. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
More companies are mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US
More companies are mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US. Still a limited amount, but now approaching 2019 levels. These figures would be consistent with 100k Non-Farm Payrolls ahead. The labor market is weakening, and if it doesn't the Fed will push until it does. Source: MacroAlf
A good news for S&P 500 margins? CPI is now above PPI
Finally, PPI is below CPI - this is welcome news for the S&P 500 margin outlook. Source: Bloomberg, Gina Martins Adams
US, China and EU GDP over time
Source: Bloomberg
OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut.
Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. Source: Bison interests
Chart from GS showing the equity market cap as a share of GDP for different nations
At the end of 2022, the US' equity market cap was 164% as a share of their GDP. Source: Goldman Sachs
Energy prices collapsed: European Gas Future now 84% below ATH, German 1y ahead Power Price 85% below ATH
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Global investors are dumping US equities
Source: BofA Fund Manager Survey
