BREAKING >>> Fed Chair Powell says there has been a ‘lack of further progress’ this year on inflation
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S COMMENTS (4/16/24): 1. Recent data "shows lack of further progress on inflation" 2. Inflation has "introduced new uncertainty" on whether the Fed can cut rates later this year 3. Fed can maintain higher rates for "as long as needed" 4. Recent data has not given greater confidence on inflation 5. Restrictive Fed policy needs more time to work 6. It will likely take longer to "regain confidence" on inflation https://lnkd.in/eMaJZNZZ Source: CNBC, The Kobeissi Letter, Trend Spider
Current treasury issuance exceeded the level seen only during the deepest Covid lockdown.
At full employment, imagine what will happen during next recession. Source: Michel A.Arouet
Longer-term inflation expectations are rising again.
The market's implied rate of inflation over the next five years has risen to the highest level in more than a year, at 2.6%, according to breakeven rates. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz
Mind the gap...
France debt to GDP ratio ihas been diverging in a meaningful way vs. Germany debt to GDP. Rating agency Fitch already cut country's credit rating from AA to AA- last year, rating agency S&P has placed France under review... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Bitcoin ‘halving’ will deal a $10bn blow to crypto miners.
Cryptocurrency’s update will slash new supply in late April. Competition for favourable electric rates is growing from AI firms. Some traders are thus betting that mining stocks will fall. Total short interest, dollar value of shares borrowed & sold by bearish traders, stood at ~$2bn. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
CBOE Volatility Index $VIX surges to highest level of fear since Halloween 👻🎃
Source: Barchart
According to Alfonso Peccatiello, a $1 trillion worth liquidity wave is about to be unleashed on the US economy!
He is not talking about Powell or the Fed. He is talking about Treasury Secretary Yellen unleashing a large sum of stimulus further boosting the US economy right before elections! How? By almost emptying a $1 trillion+ Treasury General Account!
The S&P 500 is only down 3.7% from its peak closing price at the end of March.
The median intra-year drawdown since 1928 is -13%. What were seeing today is normal volatility - the first 3 months of the year were abnormally smooth. Source: Charlie Bilello