Time Management Cheatsheet
by @heyoliverjane on X
Is it sustainable?
Interest Expense, Social Security, and Health are set to account for 87% of the US government spending growth over the next 10 years. Government spending is estimated to grow from $6.8 trillion in Fiscal Year 2024 to $10.3 trillion in 2034, according to the CBO. $3.0 trillion of the $3.5 trillion increase come from Social Security, federal health care programs, and interest costs on the public debt. Interest costs are projected to be the fastest growing part of the budget, DOUBLING from $892 billion in 2024 to $1.7 trillion by 2034. The net interest share of spending growth could hit as high as 23%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, CBO
The cost of chip designs has risen at an incredibly rapid pace.
From the 28nm design in 2011 to 3nm in 2022, the cost of designing a chip increased by 12x – benefiting design tool and IP giants such as $SNPS, $CDNS, and $ARM. Source: Quartr
Buffett > S&P 500?
Over the last 5 years, $BRK.B returned 130% compared to the $SPY 91% return Zooming out, this is where Buffett's legacy is unparalleled... From 1964 to 2023, Berkshire Hathaway returned an astounding 4,384,748%, compared to the S&P 500’s 31,223% gain Source: Stocktwits
How Warren Buffet selects stocks
Source: Investment Books (Dhaval)
Some good news on US inflation: 1-year inflation expectations declined to 4.9% in August, the lowest since the pandemic in 2020, according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey.
Over the last 2 years, inflation expectations have fallen from ~8.0% to 4.9%, recording a similar drop as during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As a result, expectations are now at levels seen in the 2015-2019 period. Furthermore, 1-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer survey fell to 2.8%, the lowest since December 2020. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Recessions are Bad for Stocks...
-but only during the first part -stocks do well in the later stages Basically you need to lighten exposure into recession, then load up in the depths. Source: Schroders thru Callum Thomas
BREAKING: 90% of US cities saw a rise in year over year unemployment rates in July, according to the BLS.
Jobless rates jumped in 350 of the 389 metropolitan areas last month. Additionally, in 8 large metro areas with a population of 1 million or more, FEWER people held a job in July 2024 than in July 2019. At the same time, average weekly wages DROPPED in 43% of the 389 metropolitan areas. In 5 of the 8 highest-paying areas with average weekly wages above$1,400, salaries declined year-over-year. The US labor market is weakening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
