TS Lombard: "Our analysis of past volatility bouts shows that equities take 4-5 weeks, on average, before a sustained recovery begins.
Markets tend to rebound on oversold conditions such as the current ones, but investors often sell into that strength, which can lead to a relapse. This is what happened, for instance, in 2018, an episode that bears strong similarities to the current one." Source: TS Lombard, The Market Ear
The Nikkei's 12.4% decline today was the 2nd largest in its history, trailing only the 14.9% fall during the October 1987 crash.
What happened in the year after the 1987 crash? The Nikkei 225 rose 26.5%. Those who embraced panic were rewarded. Source: Charlie Bilello
JPY FX positioning is finally NET LONG (per GS).
The yen is now free to crash again... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Goldman Sachs
Japanese stocks are now up 9.4% overnight.
They are on track for biggest gain since October 2008 Source: Markets & Mayhem, CNBC
The $VIX spiked 65% higher today, the 2nd largest 1-day % increase in history
(note: $VIX data goes back to 1990). Source: Charlie Bilello
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes 3.0% lower erasing $1.4 TRILLION of market cap today, posting its worst day since September 2022.
The S&P 500 is now just 1.4% away from correction territory. The Nasdaq 100 is in correction territory and will enter a bear market if it falls 7.5% from current levels. In less than one month, the S&P 500 has erased $5 TRILLION in market cap. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Why the ECB should keep interest rates at the lowest level possible explained in one chart
The Euro zone is an equilibrium where high debt countries like Italy, France and Spain run big deficits. The ECB enables this by capping yields when these spike like they did in 2022. This policy is an implicit subsidy of high debt countries by low debt ones... Source: Robin Brooks
US 2s/10s yield spread is now flat for the 1st time since 2022 on aggressive repricing of Fed rate cuts
US 2y yields have plunged by 70bps to 3.69% since last Wed while US 10y yields only dropped by 40bps in the same time. Source: Bloomberg, holgerZ
