The Red Sea's inflation threat:
The disruptions in the Red Sea have roiled global supply chains and pushed up freight costs. The Houthis have pledged a “big” response to airstrikes. Iran wins either way w/US airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Red Sea Transit Volume
Source: BofA, Win Smart
Key takeaways from Taiwan's President election;
1) Re-elected President Lai Ching-te (DPP party) favors closer ties with the US and an expected status quo regarding the situation of Taiwan and the existing relationships. We don’t expect any significant change in Taiwan’s policies 2) We note that US President Biden statement post-election has been very balanced (Official congratulations to Lai-Ching Te but no support to Taiwan independence vote) Source: Bloomberg
Weighted Average interestrate for sp500 non-financial firms is expected to pick-up in 2024e and 2025e but remains quite low by historical standard.
Source: Michel A.Arouet
BlackRock is already putting out charts showing that $BTC has been the world's best-performing asset in the last decade.
Source: Lark Davis
Top 5 spot Bitcoin total flows:
BlackRock: $497.7 million Fidelity: $422.3 million Bitwise: $237.9 million ARK 21Shares: $105.2 million Franklin: $50.1 million Source: Bitcoin Magazine
Is this the reason why the Fed might be forced to cut rates in March?
We could have: 1. Reverse repo ends (see chart below) 2. BTFP expires 3. Fed cuts (allegedly) 4. QT ends (allegedly) I.e 3 and 4 could counter-balance 1 and 2
Natural Gas is now up 54% since the December 13th low and has traded green in 8 of the last 9 days.
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
