The median price of a new home sold in the US is down 17% from its peak in October 2022 (from $496,800 to $413,200)
After the last housing bubble peak the median new home price fell 22% nationally before bottoming. Source: Charlie Bilello
Gross domestic product data showed the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter
That’s much higher than the 2% expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones, underscoring continued economic resiliency despite interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth... and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth! Source; www.zerohedge.com
The Buffett Indicator (total value of all publicly-traded stocks/GDP) is near all-time highs and at a significantly higher level than during the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.
Source: Macro Micro, Charlie Bilello
The US Money Supply decreased by 2% in 2023, the largest annual decline on record with data going back to 1959
This was the second straight annual decline which followed the record 40% expansion in the money supply in 2020-21. Source: Charlie Bilello
European natural gas prices have fallen massively from 2022 levels, so why is German manufacturing doing so badly?
Because - even with all the declines since 2022 - naturalgas prices are over 60% ABOVE their historical averages. That's a huge adverse energy shock hitting Europe. Source: Robin Brooks
The Nasdaq 100:
- if you bought at the December 2022 low, you are up 64% - if you bought at the 2021 high. you are up 5%. - if you bought at March 2020 lows, you are up 150% Source: Bespoke, TME
Smart money is extremely bearish
Source: Game of Trades
Average 3-month ATM implied volatility (max/min range since 2008)
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