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Do you remember the dramatic loosing of Financial conditions at the end of 2023?
The lagged effect of this massive loosening is now hitting and is supporting the US economy (and this NOT doing The Fed's job...). Indeed, US economic surprises keep surprising on the upside. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent (!!!) on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26
One reason the Fed is a bit nervous and signalling and end to their hiking cycle?
Real Fed Funds rates are the highest in over 20 years... Source: Markets & Mayhem, BofA
While the US economy remains very resilient, many consumers continue to struggle and need to find ways to keep their purchasing power
Pay rent or parents
The performance differential between Nasdaq 100 (Tech) and Russell 2000 (us small-caps) is extreme.
Yet the earnings gap between Mega Cap Tech Stocks and Small Caps has widened to all an all-time high. Source: Barchart
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