Fighting the Fed has transformed bond ETFs into cash incinerators..
$TLT has come out of nowhere to hit #3 on the Top 20 Cash Burning ETFs list (lifetime flows minus aum today) with over $10b lost. Top of list used to be -2x/-3x, VIX, commodity ETFs. Now its vanilla bond ETFs... Great table from psarofagis thru Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
Stars on X
By: World of Statistics
Vast majority on Wall Street think next 100bps move in 10Y yields is LOWER (and vast majority think the next 10% S&P 500 move will be LOWER)
The Deutsche Bank October 2023 global financial market survey, conducted between the 3rd and 6th of October, had 410 responses from around the world. - 75% think the next 100bps move in US 10yr yields is lower (average yield 4.75% during the survey). A big turnaround from June’s results where a small majority expected 4.5% before 2.5% when we were halfway between the two. Well done to that small majority as it got there in just 3 months. - 72% think the next 10% move in the S&P 500 will be lower. Slightly less than in June. In March 76% thought the next 10% move would be up so a different mood to earlier this year. Source: DB
Total Returns over last 3 years...
MSCI India ETF $INDA: +33% MSCI China ETF $MCHI: -41% Source: Charlie Bilello
The gap between returns in tech stocks and US Treasuries has widened significantly since June
As bond prices continue to plummet but equities hold higher, this gap is getting larger. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
The KBW Bank Index is underperforming the S&P 500 by 37% year-to-date, on pace for the widest annual gap on record
(note: data via Dow Jones going back to 1993). Source: Charlie Bilello
Another week, another IPO
$BIRK Birkenstock could reach a $10B valuation in its US IPO. Here's a look at how they make money. Source: App Economy Insight
Over half of bond ETFs are now trading at a discount
Spikes in this number have been a pretty reliable bottom signal in the past. That said we not quite near the last two spikes but close.. Source: psarofagis thru Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
